2019 Kentucky Derby: More About The Morning Line, Updated Odds, And Post Positions

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The 145th Kentucky Derby will be held this evening, kicking off the 2019 Triple Crown season. The buzz for this year’s race is as high as any in recent memory, with several legitimate contenders revealed earlier this week with the announcement of early morning line odds.

The tradition of morning line odds has been in practice since 1949, when the odds were first published in the Kentucky Derby Day program. Mike Battaglia has set the morning line odds at Churchill Downs since 1974, and has correctly predicted the betting favorite 79.5% of the time. Of course, it’s important to remember that handicapping ponies isn’t an exact science, and the numbers at Churchill Downs’ tote board are reflective only of the bookmakers’ prediction on how the public will bet. Once released, the odds for the Kentucky Derby will fluctuate throughout the weekend.

As the most popular horse race in the world in terms of both viewership and money wagered, the 2019 Run for the Roses may benefit from the increased attention the ponies are getting due to legalized sports betting throughout the country.

Last year’s Derby, which saw Justify win before going on to take the 13th Triple Crown in history, drew an audience of just under 158,000 people to the legendary Churchill Downs racetrack in Louisville, Kentucky. The race also turned a record handle of over $150 million.

As expected, this year’s event is similarly sold out, though the weather will be a factor in both attendance and how the horses will be handicapped as post time approaches.

145th Kentucky Derby Details:

• Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
• When: 6:50 p.m. ET post time
• Track: 1.25-mile (10 furlongs) dirt oval
• Weather: Rain, thunderstorms
• Track conditions: Sloppy
• Broadcast coverage: NBC (2:30 p.m. ET – 7:30 p.m. ET)
• Streaming coverage: NBCSports app (iPhone, Android), NBCSports.com

2019 Kentucky Derby Odds

Since the early morning line odds were posted, Kentucky Derby odds have taken the weather and other factors into account. The official Churchill Downs tote board the following odds as we what’s sure to an action-packed day of at the :

• Gate 1 – War of Will 17-1
• Gate 2 – Tax 35-1
• Gate 3 – By My Standards 15-1
• Gate 4 – Gray Magician 31-1
• Gate 5 – Improbable 5-1
• Gate 6 – Vekoma 22-1
• Gate 7 – Maximum Security 9-2
• Gate 8 – Tacitus 5-1
• Gate 9 – Plus Que Parfait 55-1
• Gate 10 – Cutting Humor 24-1
• Gate 11 – Code of Honor (up from Gate 13) 13-1
• Gate 12 – Win Win Win 15-1 (up from Gate 14)
• Gate 13 – Master Fencer 52-1 (JPN, up from Gate 15)
• Gate 14 – Game Winner 6-1 (up from Gate 16)
• Gate 15 – Roadster 10-1 (up from Gate 17)
• Gate 16 – Long Range Toddy 49-1 (up from Gate 18)
• Gate 17 – Spinoff 50-1 (up from Gate 19)
• Gate 18 – Country House 62-1 (up from Gate 20)
• Gate 19 – Bodexpress 99-1 (alternate, up from Gate 20)
• Gate 20 – (vacated)

These odds are considerably different than the morning line odds that were posted both at the Kentucky Derby’s official TwinSpires betting outlet and at various online racebooks immediately after the post position draw.

Whereas most books had Game Winner at 6-1 odds (where he remains) after morning line-favorite Omaha Beach scratched, that’s no longer good enough for “favorite” status. Given the track conditions, Improbable and Tacitus (who was most recently on futures boards at between 10-1 and 12-1) now share co-favorite status at 5-1 to win.

Handicapping The 2019 Kentucky Derby

The conditions at Churchill Downs’ 1.25-mile dirt track are forecast to be sloppy, impacting overall speed and calling for greater endurance from the field of 19 horses.

When Justify won last year in similar conditions, he finished the race in 2:04.20. While respectable, that is nearly two seconds off the average champion’s time on a dry, or “fast,” track (and nearly 5 seconds off Derby record-holder Secretariat’s 1973 time of 1:59.40).

However, the victory convinced bettors and horseplayers that Justify had the necessary grind to win the marathon Belmont Stakes (the last leg of the Triple Crown), which he did some five weeks later to capture the Triple Crown.

For some horses, particularly those built for longer runs, a sloppy field will typically give them an advantage over their sprint-oriented counterparts. For veteran horseplayers, track condition is as big a factor in handicapping their picks as is gate position.

To the latter point, new bettors this year got to witness first-hand how a late Derby scratch can affect the odds of all other horses, whether that scratched horse was favored to win or not.

When Omaha Beach, assigned to Gate 11, was scratched due to an entrapped epiglottis just a few days before Derby Day, not only did the pack of contenders tighten, but many horses moved over a spot in their gate assignments. Those same horses moved again when Haikal, in Gate 11, went out with an abscess in his front left hoof.

For some horses, there hasn’t been much benefit or detriment in the move. And for some, the shift improved their odds.

For still others, the shift was hindrance. Game Winner, the pre-race favorite after Omaha Beach went down, moved from Gate 16, which has produced five previous Derby winners, to Gate 14, which has produced only two. That shift, coupled with the sloppy track conditions, cost Game Winner 100 points on the official TwinSpires odds boards (though he hasn’t moved at most offshore books).

Curiously, Roadster should have seen a major boost in his odds by moving up two gates from unlucky number 17. No horse starting out of Gate 17 has ever won the Kentucky Derby, though Roadster was near the top of the odds boards at 6-1 while occupying that spot. After moving to Gate 15, which has seen three previous winners, Roadster’s odds fell to 10-1.

Alternate Kentucky Derby Odds

While most racebooks will be using the official odds as a starting point, the nature of pari-mutuel betting and futures betting means that other books taking action on the Kentucky Derby will have dramatically different numbers.

When wagering on the “Fastest Two Minutes in Sports”, it’s probably wise to spend a slower 30 minutes or so shopping lines at multiple betting sites.

Several Internet-based overseas sportsbooks have Derby odds that are much better values than those you’ll find through Churchill Downs’ and TwinSpires’ simulcast platform.

For example, most offshore books still have Tacitus at 10-1, meaning you’d get twice the payout simply by using an alternative racebook site. Similarly, these books also have Improbable at 6-1 or better, which is a minimum 20 percent increase in that horse’s value.

The reverse is also true. Online, you’ll find that Roadster is still a top favorite at about 6-1, fully 400 points better than he’s trending at Churchill Downs. In addition, Game Winner is still the frontrunner at many sites, paying out less at overseas books that he does at domestic ones.

For Kentucky Derby bettors, there are many moving parts in picking win-place-show bets and exotics like exactas and trifectas, and the above considerations are just a few things to keep in mind when crafting the perfect winning ticket.

The gates will be lifted on the field of 19 horses at 6:50 p.m., and coverage starts at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC.

News tags: Kentucky Derby