269-269: What Happens if Kamala Harris and Donald Trump Tie?

• Donald Trump is a -200 odds betting favorite to win the election and is favored in every swing state.
• Trump would need to lose a few in order to tie while winning North Carolina and flipping Pennsylvania and Michigan.
• Kamala Harris would need to take Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada – all states Joe Biden won in 2020.

PHILADELPHIA – A 269-269 tie would create a unique landscape for political betting. Whether betting on the electoral votes margin, the party winner, or the president themselves, how would sportsbooks handle a 269-269 tie?

The best sportsbooks to bet on the president like Bovada and BetOnline offer many betting options but this unprecedented scenario could throw a major wrench in the grading process.

Here’s a look at how Kamala Harris could tie Donald Trump and the future process afterward.

How a 269-269 Tie Could Happen

With 538 total electoral votes at stake, a candidate needs 270 votes to secure the presidency. However, some scenarios could result in a 269-269 deadlock.

In closely contested battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada, where a few percentage points separate the candidates, it’s possible for each to win just enough states to split the electoral college right down the middle.

• Kamala Harris would have to win a few swing states she’s an underdog in: Wisconsin (+110), Arizona (+225), Georgia (+220), Nevada (+135)
• Donald Trump would have to underperform, winning only a few swing states: North Carolina (-275), Pennsylvania (-160), Michigan (-125)

What Happens if The Electoral College Ties?

If Harris and Trump each receive 269 electoral votes, the decision would move to the House of Representatives in a process known as a contingent election. The House of Representatives vote for the President where each state’s House delegation casts one vote for the president.

Only a simple majority of 26 states is required to win – a boost for Republicans as smaller states have as much voting power as larger ones.

In parallel, the Senate is tasked with selecting the Vice President. Each senator casts one vote, and a simple majority of 51 votes is required. This could result in a mixed administration if the House and Senate choose candidates from opposing parties.

Imagine a Trump-Walz presidency or a Harris-Vance cabinet.

If the House remains can’t elect a president by January 20, the Vice President chosen by the Senate would assume the role of acting president until a decision is reached. If neither body can choose by then, under the Twentieth Amendment and the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, the next eligible person would be the speaker of the House (Mike Johnson).

While rare, a 269-269 tie remains as a real potential result in the 2024 presidential election. With legal sports betting odds needing to go both ways in terms of favorites and underdogs hitting, it is still possible.

As there aren’t any bets on a tie, other election bets could certainly be affected by this possibility.

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