A.J. Brown’s props vs the 49ers Using Projections

NFC Championship betting sites have set the A.J. Brown prop betting odds to low based on the San Francisco 49ers’ weakness against wide receivers, CeeDee Lamb’s performance last week, and projections for Brown this weekend.

PHILADELPHIA – The San Francisco 49ers have a noted weakness against wide receivers, with the NFC Championship game an excellent sport to target A.J. Brown’s player props as a result.

Betting Against the 49ers Defense

As noted last week with CeeDee Lamb the 49ers have a legitimate weakness against opposing wide receivers.

Those weaknesses resulted in CeeDee Lamb going for 10 catches and 117 yards on 13 targets last week.

San Francisco 49ers vs Wide Receivers

Give up 170.16 Receiving Yards per game to opposing Wide Receivers (5th-Worst in the NFL)
Give up 13.42 Receptions per game (7th-Worst in the NFL)
Opposing receivers are targeted 20.0 times per game (12th-Most in the NFL)

Despite those weaknesses against receivers and the performance of CeeDee Lamb last week, NFL sportsbooks have set A.J. Brown’s receiver props considerably lower than his season-long averages:

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop: 68.5 Yards (Over: -115; Under: -115) vs. 88.0 Yards per Game
A.J. Brown Receptions Props: 4.5 Receptions (Over: -165; Under: +125) vs. 5.18 Receptions per Game
A.J. Brown To Score a Touchdown: Yes +155 vs. 0.65 Touchdowns per Game

Players can also use similar projections for A.J. Brown versus the 49ers that were used last week for Lamb, nearly all of which suggest Brown will also go over all of his receiving props.

Those projections, which include A.J. Brown’s usage rate among Eagles wide receivers and the average total of each stat given up by the 49ers to wide receivers, can be seen below.

A.J. Brown Projections vs. the 49ers

Statistic	A.J. Brown Usage	49ers vs WRs	Projection
Receiving Yards	46.8%	170.16	79.65
Receptions	38.10%	13.42	5.11
Touchdowns	50%	0.95	0.48

The only A.J. Brown prop at legal sports betting sites that he is not expected to hit is a touchdown, and even based on projections that very well could happen given the 0.48 touchdown prediction and comes with long +155 odds that still likely make it a good bet.

The better bets for A.J. Brown versus the 49ers based on projections are receptions (5.11 projected vs 4.5 prop) and receiving yards (79.65 projected vs 68.5 prop).

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Brett Crown

Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.