Are There Better Odds For SNF On Joe Mixon To Score A TD?

• The Detroit Lions are 3.5-point favorites in NRG Stadium against the Houston Texans for Sunday Night Football with an over-under set at 48.5 points.
• Joe Mixon has scored a touchdown in every game except his injury game, but is it getting to the point where it’s too expensive to bet on Mixon?

HOUSTON – Outside of the Chicago Bears game, Joe Mixon is averaging 23.4 carries for 116.8 yards while scoring a touchdown in all five.

Though a hip drop tackle took him out in the Bears game, Mixon has accumulated 74 carries over the last three games, removing any concern from backers.

But are the legal sports betting odds on Joe Mixon to score too expensive to consider?

It’s clear that Mixon is a major part of the offense but his snap count declined by 10 over the last week.

Still, he’s on the field for six of every 10 offense snaps, it’s just a matter of finding the endzone. At 48.5 points, the Sunday Night Football over under is one of the highest of the week. But, the mindset to fade this Joe Mixon prop bet is because of Detroit’s defense.

Detroit Stopping The First Downs

Allowing only 22 carries per game to opponents this year, the Lions have only allowed 5.5 rushing first downs per game (second this year and fourth overall in 2023).

Add in the fact that opponents are rushing only 35% of the time against Detroit and only getting a first down in 25% of runs, and we’re looking at some of the toughest NFL rushing statistics to beat.

If Houston has trouble moving the chains because of the run game, it could be abandoned early on.

The NFL sportsbooks seem to think Houston will rely on their passing game and see a bounce back for CJ Stroud.

Total Passing Yards – C.J. Stroud

• Over 228.5 Yards -115
• Under 228.5 Yards -115

Failing to hit this number three times (averaging 16.5 completions for 188.5 yards) over his last four games, Stroud beat out his passing prop total in four of the first five games of the season.

In those games, Stroud averaged 24.4 completions for 277 yards a game. With the news of Nico Collins on the mend, this only bodes well for Stroud’s ability to clear this number.

• Instead of taking the expensive odds on Joe Mixon to score a touchdown at -200, look to bet the over on Sunday Night Football for CJ Stroud’s passing yards total.

News tags: CJ Stroud | Detroit Lions | football | Houston Texans | Joe Mixon | NFL | Nico Collins | Sunday Night Football