Best Australian Open Tennis Bets for Day 4: Jan 18-19, 2023

• Tommy Paul is favored to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina but bettors can find better prop bets.
• Odds on Alexander Zverev winning in three sets changes depending on how one bets it.
• Betting on Novak Djokovic to win in three sets comes with a more valuable play in taking the under in his games played.

MELBOURNE – Day 4 of the Australian Open features many matchups on the men’s side. While the action starts at 7 p.m. EST, the matches roll into the night, ending just before sunrise on the East Coast.

Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Tommy Paul won Round 1 in straight sets 6-1, 7-6, 6-2. But, Paul has seen an exit at the Australian Open in the second round both last year and the year prior.

On the other hand, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina went up the first set 6-0 before winning the match in five sets.

The two have yet to meet on any surface and Paul (-195) comes in as the heavy favorite. Davidovich Fokina (+160) is the underdog, but has a slightly higher ranking than Paul (32 to 35, respectively).

Those fearful of the expensive Aussie Open odds on Tommy Paul or the thought that Davidovich Fokina gets the win should look elsewhere.

Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Best Bets

• Under 39.5 games (-125)
• Davidovich Fokina +2.5 sets (-275)
• Tommy Paul wins 3-1 (+310)

Michael Mmoh vs. Alexander Zverev

Despite being absent for two majors last year, Alexander Zverev is a -600 favorite over Michael Mmoh for a reason.

The German has made three semifinals in his last five grand slam appearances. Despite his +5000 odds to win the Australian Open, his route to victory may only see issues in the quarterfinals vs Casper Ruud.

Down 2-0 and needing a third-set tiebreak to come back, Mmoh went to five sets against qualifier Laurent Lokoli in Round 1.

Don’t let Mmoh’s 7-3 hard court record in his last 10 give you false hopes. The highest ranked player he beat in that span was Valentin Vacherot at 269.

The best bet may be on Zverev to win in straight sets… but make sure to find the best betting value on the Australian Open.

Zverev Winning In 3

• Zverev -2.5 sets (+105)
• Zverev win 3-0 (EVEN)
• 3 sets played (-115)

These three bets are almost identical but legal sports betting sites offer different odds on the match.

Handicapping Novak Djokovic

Absent in last year’s Aussie Open to due COVID rules, Djokovic was not able to compete for his tenth Australian Open title or build on his no-longer three-tournament win streak.

There is no guessing game here – Djokovic is -20000 to beat Enzo Couacaud, with a game spread of 10.5 games.

Those betting $100 on Djoker’s moneyline would only find a payout of 50 cents.

With a game total of 27 games (and shading on the under), sportsbooks are expecting something like 6-3, 6-3, 6-3.

Even though Couacaud was able to take the power server John Isner to five sets in Wimbledon last year, the return game of Djokovic will prove to be too much.

Odds on Djokovic winning a set 6-0 come with +190 odds. While this isn’t unlikely, Djokovic hasn’t done this at the Aussie Open since 2019 – though he did it twice that year.

The payout looks favorable, but the best bet on Novak Djokovic may be to take the under (-165) on his total games won at 18.5. This assumes a 3-0 victory (as the -600 odds suggest) without a tiebreaker present.

News tags: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Alexander Zverev | Australian Open | Enzo Couacaud | Michael Mmoh | Novak Djokovic | tennis | Tommy Paul