Best Bet at the Arnold Palmer Invitational: Rory McIlroy

• Rory McIlroy is the best bet to win the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational with +850 odds based on his recent play that suggests a strong course fit and the long odds available at legal betting sites.

ORLANDO, Fla. – The best bet at sites with Arnold Palmer Invitational odds this week is on Rory McIlroy, not Scottie Scheffler, to win the tournament.

McIlroy, with five top tens and one win in his last seven appearances at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge, has +850 odds at PGA Tour betting sites to win.

2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds

• Scottie Scheffler +350
• Rory McIlroy +850
• Ludvig Aberg +1400
• Xander Schauffele +2000
• Collin Morikawa +2200
• Justin Thomas +2200
• Hideki Matsuyama +2500
• Patrick Cantlay +2500
• Tommy Fleetwood +2500
• Shane Lowry +3500

Bet on Rory McIlroy at the API

The best way to gain an edge when betting on Arnold Palmer Invitational odds is to look at how the Bay Hill Club & Lodge has played in the past.

Bettors can use Data Golf’s course table, which shows a statistical breakdown of the PGA Tour tournament courses since 2015. When using that tool, the data that stands out most for this tournament is that it is incredibly difficult from tee-to-green (OTT+APP+ARG).

After removing major championship venues, the Arnold Palmer Bay Hill Club & Lodge ranks as the third most difficult course on tour from tee-to-green.

That means bettors should look at the best players in the field from tee-to-green this season.

It is not difficult to find Rory McIlroy on the list of best players from tee-to-green at PGATour.com. The legendary golfer ranks first in average strokes gained per round from tee-to-green this year by a wide margin.

Best Players by Strokes Gained T2G in the API Field

1. Rory McIlroy 2.112
2. Collin Morikawa 1.341
3. Scottie Scheffler 1.341
4. Tommy Fleetwood 1.329
5. Justin Thomas 1.259

This is not simply a short-term anomaly for McIlroy either. He leads the field in strokes gained average from tee-to-green in their 40 rounds played as well.

Scottie Scheffler had a historic season from tee-to-green in 2024, he averaged almost a full stroke gained more per round than second place, which is why he is one of the biggest favorites to win the API. He still is likely one of the best bets to win the tournament, but legal sports betting sites are making the reigning API winner too big of a favorite over Rory.

Based on that slow odds adjustment and his incredible performance from tee-to-green recently, Rory McIlroy is the best to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational with +850 odds.

News tags: Florida | golf | PGA Tour | Rory McIlroy | Scottie Scheffler