Best Bet for FSU vs Florida: Take the Over in Tallahassee

• The best bet for Florida State vs Florida is on the over for the 45.5-point total due to the late-season improvements by offenses that are run by true freshman quarterbacks.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – The best bet on Saturday night for the rivalry game between Florida State and Florida is on the over for the 45.5-point total.

Bovada has given both the over and the under -110 odds ahead of the showdown.

Florida State vs Florida Odds

Betting on Florida State’s Improved Quarterback Play

Fading Florida State at college football betting sites has been one of the best bets of the season so far, but this week it is not.

That’s because FSU true freshman Luke Kromenhoek may have taken a leap last week versus Charleston Southern. Against lesser competition, his base stats (13 for 20 for 209 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions) may not mean as much, but two advanced stats that adjust for level of competition suggest that he was one of the best quarterbacks in the country last week.

QB play for JUST this weeks games. We got ourselves a traffic jam in the top right so im just gunna say Luke Kromenhoek is the FUTURE #CFB #CollegeFootball pic.twitter.com/kqGkzo4wtI

— CFBNumbers (@CFBNumbers) November 24, 2024

That graph shows Kromenhoek had the third-highest Pro Football Focus grade of all FBS quarterbacks last week, while the x-axis ESPN QBR stat shows that he was also a well-above-average passer.

Given that he was a near consensus high four-star prospect, this type of improvement was expected at some point.

It is unlikely that he will lead the offense to 41 points again, but that improvement does suggest he will lead the ‘Noles down the field often enough to help this game go over when adding FSU’s points to UF’s.

Betting on DJ Lagway

Another highly-rated true freshman quarterback in this game, Florida’s DJ Lagway is piloting an offense that has the Gators to back-to-back victories over AP top 25 teams.

In those games, the Gators scored 24 and 27 points. Both of those defenses are better at preventing points than Florida State’s.

Based on what the offense has shown in the past two full games started by Lagway, the Gators will likely light up the scoreboard versus their rival.

That logical assumption about the Lagway-led UF offense coupled with the improved Florida State offense with Luke Kromenhoek at quarterback makes the over in this game the best bet at sports betting sites this week.

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