Dak Prescott

  • The Sunday Night Football spread has the Dallas Cowboys as four-point underdogs to the San Francisco 49ers.
  • The Niners are 2-1 on the moneyline (-200 odds), while a $100 bet on the Cowboys would pay out $175 in profit.

DALLASDak Prescott has played the Niners five times in his career. 2-3 against them, he’s scored multiple touchdowns in three of the five.

Still, his game logs show a stark difference in early Dak days and later Dak days. The first two games were in 2016 and 2017. The last three? 2022 and 2023. Prescott’s stats against the Niners show this difference.

Dak Prescott vs the 49ers

Games Completions/Attempts Passing Yards TDs, INTs AVG Rating
2 October games in 2016, 2017 19.5/28.5 240.0 2.5, 0 124.5
An Oct 2023 game + two playoff games 20.0/34.6 204.3 1.0, 2.0 61.5

While his attempts per game have skyrocketed, his numbers have gotten worse overall. Still, we can use NFL betting trends like this to analyze Dak Prescott’s prop bets vs the 49ers.

Odds For Dak’s Passing Yards

  • Over 243.5 -115
  • Under 243.5 -115

Breaking this number twice, one of those times was only 245 passing yards, showing much more love toward the under.

Add in the fact that the Niners have held five of seven QBs under 200 yards this year and it makes this a no-play or the under.

Prescott’s Touchdown Total

  • Over 1.5 +125
  • Under 1.5 -165

Only accounting for passing touchdowns at legal sportsbooks online, the Under is the “makes sense” play here. Prescott has only thrown one touchdown in each of the last three games vs San Francisco. Also, the Niners have only let up eight passing touchdowns this year and gave up none to Patrick Mahomes last week.

But the -165 odds aren’t worth the value. The NY Jets threw for two against them, as did Sam Darnold. Hoping the high volume turns into points twice seems to be the smarter play instead.

Total Passing Attempts For Dak Prescott

  • Over 34.5 -120
  • Under 34.5 -110

In the five games Dak has played vs the 49ers, he’s broken this mark only twice. But, two games can be outliers based on their game’s production. Both blowouts, Prescott only saw 24 and 25 attempts in games where both teams won by a scoring of 40-something to 10.

Take the over at legal sports betting sites, as the shading suggests. The Cowboys have the second highest passing play percentage in the league (65.6%), showing their desire to get Dak involved.

Overall, taking the overs on Dak seems smart, as key defensive injuries for the Cowboys could cause the Niners to get ahead early. While his passing total might be hard to reach, one could try and guess who he’ll throw the touchdown to for a higher payout.

Anytime Touchdown Odds for the Cowboys

  • CeeDee Lamb +110
  • Rico Dowdle +160
  • Jake Ferguson +250
  • Ezekiel Elliott +250
  • Jalen Tolbert +290
  • KaVontae Turpin +400

 

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