Betting on Brock Purdy and the Niners vs the Cowboys

• The San Francisco 49ers are 3.5-point favorites versus the Dallas Cowboys, with the 49ers the best bet to cover the spread.
• San Francisco and Dallas have been the two best teams in the league at forcing turnovers on defense.
• Brock Purdy and Niners’ offense has protected the ball well, while the Cowboys’ propensity to turn it over is likely to manifest itself.

SAN FRANCISCO – The San Francisco 49ers are 3.5-point favorites against the Dallas Cowboys in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs at Bovada.

The popular NFL betting site may not be favoring the 49ers by enough points.

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys

Team:	Spread:	Moneyline:	Total:
Dallas Cowboys	+3.5 (-110)	160	O46.5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers	-3.5 (-110)	-185	U46.5 (-110)

Betting on San Francisco to Cover

San Francisco is likely to cover the spread against the Cowboys not just because they are the Super Bowl 57 favorite from the NFC (+400), but because of the turnover battle that will likely decide the game versus Dallas.

Dallas and San Francisco were the top two defenses in the NFL at forcing turnovers this season, but their offenses have been nearly the exact opposite of one another:

• Dallas Cowboys Defense: 33 Turnovers Forced (16 Interceptions/17 Fumbles)
• San Francisco 49ers Defense: 30 Turnovers Forced (20 Interceptions/10 Fumbles)
• Dallas Cowboys Offense: 23 Turnovers (18 Interceptions/5 Fumbles)
• San Francisco 49ers Offense: 17 Turnovers (9 Interceptions/8 Fumbles)

Those turnover statistics are likely to result in a large 49ers win based on three key statistics:

• San Francisco has committed the third-fewest turnovers in the NFL this season, while Dallas is tied for the eighth most.
• Since Brock Purdy took over as the starter (Week 11), the 49ers have turned the ball over just four times.
• Dak Prescott tied for the league lead in interceptions in only 12 games and the 49ers’ defense has forced the most interceptions in the NFL.

The Brock Purdy-led Niners have dominated the turnover margin since he took over, winning or breaking even in the turnover department in every single game (San Francisco also won each game outright).

Legal sports betting sites may not trust Brock Purdy to keep up that level of play, but based on Dak Prescott’s past game it may be the Mississippi State product who is more likely to regress:

• Dak Prescott versus Tampa Bay in Wild Card Round: 25/33 for 305 Yards and 4 Touchdowns
• Dak Prescott’s Previous Five Game Averages: 23.4/36.4 for 259.4 Yards, 2 Touchdowns, and 1.6 Interceptions

With San Francisco’s defensive prowess at forcing turnovers and Dak Prescott’s propensity to give them up via interceptions, betting on the 49ers to cover the spread is a strong option at Bovada.

News tags: Brock Purdy | Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | NFL | San Francisco 49ers