Betting on Deebo Samuel’s Touchdowns over Receiving Props

Bettors should fade Deebo Samuel’s receiving props in the NFC Championship Game because of inconsistent performances with Brock Purdy at quarterback.
Focusing on Deebo Samuel’s touchdown scoring props is a better idea, as bets come with longer odds and include rushing equity.

PHILADELPHIA – Deebo Samuel’s receiving props versus the Philadelphia Eagles are likely to go under on Sunday based on his inconsistent production with Brock Purdy at quarterback.

Deebo Samuel’s Receiving Props

Legal NFL sportsbooks have set Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop above his 48.6 average this season.

Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop

Over 50.5 Receiving Yards -115
Under 50.5 Receiving Yards -115

Deebo has seen his receiving yards per game go up with Brock Purdy (4 Receptions per game for 60.25 Yards), but bettors can clearly see that is only the case because of one game:

Week 14 vs Tampa Bay: 4 Receptions for 43 Yards
Week 18 vs Arizona: 2 Receptions for 20 Yards
Week 19 vs Seattle: 6 Receptions for 133 Yards
Week 20 vs Dallas: 4 Receptions for 45 Yards

With Deebo Samuel going under his reception yard total in three of his four games with Brock Purdy, taking the under at 50.5 receiving yards is a strong bet.

Samul has also only gone over his receptions prop at legal sports betting sites once with Purdy this season.

Deebo Samuel Receptions Props

Over 4.5 Receptions -115
Under 4.5 Receptions -115

Betting on a Deebo Samuel Touchdown

Betting on Deebo Samuel’s touchdown scoring props is a much better idea than either of his receiving props for two reasons:

Deebo has found the endzone three times with Purdy under center, with two of those touchdowns coming via rush.
Samuel has more rushing touchdowns this season (3) than he does receiving (2).

Deebo Samuel’s touchdown scoring props also have much longer odds than any of his receiving props at Bovada:

Deebo Samuel Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +170
Deebo Samuel First Half Touchdown Scorer: +350
Deebo Samuel First Quarter Touchdown Scorer: +800
Deebo Samuel First Touchdown Scorer: +1000

With rushing equity included in touchdown scoring props, betting on Deebo Samuel to find the endzone is a much better bet than either of his receiving props.

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Brett Crown

Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.