Betting on Duke to Break the 5-12 Curse vs Oral Roberts

• March Madness betting odds for the Oral Roberts versus Duke game do not have Jon Scheyer’s team favored by enough because of a popular skewed betting trend.
• Duke is likely to cover the spread as a five seed because of their recent form against tournament teams and Oral Roberts’ poor performance versus similar teams.

ORLANDO, Fla. – Max Abmas and Oral Roberts are looking to continue the historic trends for 12 seeds upsetting five seeds in the first round of March Madness Thursday, but it is the Duke Blue Devils who are the best bet to cover the spread against the Golden Eagles.

Duke vs Oral Roberts Odds

Ignoring Five Seed History

March Madness betting sites have made Duke a relatively large favorite in this matchup between two teams that are on very respectable win streaks (Oral Roberts has won 17 straight, Duke has won 9 straight), but the spread does not give Duke enough credit.

The reason the spread is not even farther apart is the popular stat going around about 12 seeds that ESPN put out about two trends over the past three tournaments:

• 12 Seeds ATS vs 5 Seeds: 8-4
• 12 Seeds SU vs 5 Seeds: 6-6

Those trends are very interesting, but they purposefully leave out 2018 and 2017 which saw five seeds go a combined 7-1.

Those statistics also leave out team-specific stats, trends, and observations.

Betting on Duke over Oral Roberts

Duke is the best bet to cover the 6.5-point spread at legal sports betting sites over Oral Roberts based largely on how each team has performed against other good March Madness Teams.

Oral Roberts has played three teams that made the Round of 64 (leaving out Texas Southern who lost in the First Four play-in game) and Duke has played 13 games against tournament teams.

Those results suggest that Duke will cover the spread versus Oral Roberts:

• Oral Roberts: Faced St Mary’s, Houston, and Utah State during the regular season, losing each game by at least eight points. The Golden Eagles covered against St Mary’s earlier this season but still lost by eight, which would not cover the spread in this game.
• Duke: Has played 13 games against tournament teams, going eight and five with two losses to one seeds (Purdue and Kansas). Duke struggled overall against the spread versus tournament teams going just 5-8, but two points stand out for Duke. The Blue Devils covered in five of their eight wins and Duke covered has covered in three straight games versus tournament teams.