Betting on Jeremy Pena to win World Series MVP

• The Houston Astros have been given -600 odds to beat the Philadelphia Phillies in either Game Six or Game Seven.
• With Houston such a heavy favorite to win the series, it is a better bet to focus on the players most likely to win World Series MVP and bet on them.
• Jeremy Peña is the favorite to win World Series MVP with +115 odds, but he is the clear best bet when considering the likely outcomes and his performance relative to other hitters.

HOUSTON – After a Game Five victory, the Houston Astros are now the heavy favorite to win the 2022 World Series with -600 odds to take home The Commissioner’s Trophy.

With Houston as a heavy favorite, it may be best to focus on the best bets to win the World Series MVP. Every player still has plus odds to win, meaning payouts are considerably larger than simply betting on the Astros to close out the Philadelphia Phillies.

World Series MVP Odds

• Jeremy Peña (HOU): +115
• Alex Bregman (HOU): +500
• Bryce Harper (PHI): +750
• Framber Valdez (HOU): +900
• Jose Altuve (HOU): +1200

Betting on Peña to Win World Series MVP

Jeremy Peña may have the shortest odds to take home the World Series MVP trophy, but his slash line makes him the clear favorite and best bet to win the award at Bovada:

• Jeremy Peña: .381/.409/.619 with one home run and three RBIs
• Alex Bregman: .222/.364/.556 with one home run and four RBIs
• Bryce Harper: .250/.429/.500 with one home run and two RBIs
• Jose Altuve: .318/.348/.409 with zero home runs or RBIs

Amongst not only the favorites, but the entire Houston Astros team, Jeremy Peña has the highest batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. The only batting statistic that he is not dominating relative to his teammates is home runs and RBIs, with Kyle Tucker (+1200) leading both categories.

With World Series sportsbooks giving Peña a substantial advantage over Tucker, it is best to compare Peña’s candidacy to that of the other two most likely outcomes.

Comparing Jeremy Peña to Other Outcomes

There are likely only two paths to Peña not winning this award:

• Framber Valdez continues his pitching dominance and has a great game on the rubber come Saturday night, with that performance and his Game One performance (one earned run over 6.1 innings) being enough to win the award.
• The Philadelphia Phillies come back to win the series with one of their players winning World Series MVP

What is particularly interesting about both paths is they likely both negatively affect each other and make them even less likely to happen.

The Phillies are likely to give Valdez everything he can handle and vice versa, meaning Valdez is unlikely to have a series-defining performance while still pitching well enough to win.

With both outcomes unlikely, it is clear that the best bet at legal MLB sportsbooks is on Jeremy Peña to win the World Series MVP at +115 odds.

News tags: Alex Bregman | Bovada | Bryce Harper | Framber Valdez | Houston Astros | Jeremy Pena | Jose Altuve | Kyle Tucker | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | World Series