Bill Krackomberger’s Advice on Betting Hot NFL Teams ATS

by | Nov 30, 2024 2:27 pm | Sports Betting | 0 comments

Bill Krackomberger’s Advice on Betting Hot NFL Teams ATS

Bill Krackomberger

  • Bill Krackomberger (@BillKrackman) emphasized a “tax” on NFL teams that beat the spread often at this point in the season.

LAS VEGAS – In sports betting, few voices carry as much weight as professional bettor Bill Krackomberger, who retweeted a message showing the best NFL team against this spread (ATS) this year.

A warning about the hidden costs of betting on teams that excel ATS.

Krackomberger’s insight highlights an important truth: NFL sportsbooks adjust their lines to account for public enthusiasm. If a team consistently performs well ATS, NFL sportsbooks will inflate the cost of their odds to protect their margins and capitalize on the public’s confidence.

Why This Happens

Teams that thrive ATS, like the Broncos (9-3 ATS) or Steelers (8-3 ATS) this season, become darlings for casual bettors. As the public piles on, sportsbooks adjust by:

  • Increasing Point Spreads: A team favored at -3 might now be listed at -4 or -4.5, making it harder for them to cover.
  • Worsening Moneyline Prices: A -140 moneyline could shift to -150 or worse, offering less value for the same bet.

For bettors unaware of this “tax,” these subtle changes can erode profitability over time.

How to React to This Knowledge

Knowing sportsbooks will inflate odds on hot ATS teams, the advice of Bill Krackomberger serves as a reminder to stay disciplined.

Principle Description
Avoid Chasing Trends Blindly Jumping on a team after they’ve covered multiple spreads often means you’re too late. Instead, consider fading such teams or waiting for an overreaction from the market on the other side.
Focus on Value, Not Hype A team’s impressive ATS record doesn’t always mean they’re a good bet in their next game. Analyze the schedule and if the line still has value or if it is too expensive.
Look for Undervalued Opportunities While the public drives up prices on hot teams, struggling teams like the Tennessee Titans (2-9 ATS) or New York Jets (3-8 ATS) can present opportunities for inflated underdog spreads.

Krackomberger’s advice is rooted in decades of experience as a famous sports bettor. Sportsbooks understand public tendencies, and by pricing in the popularity of ATS powerhouses, they protect their profits. Bettors who follow Krackomberger’s guidance can stay ahead by avoiding overhyped teams and looking for overlooked value elsewhere.

Stay sharp, seek value, and remember: sometimes, the best legal sports bet is the one you don’t place.

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