Can Anyone Steal The NFL Offensive ROY Award Away From Trevor Lawrence?

Trevor Lawrence has +275 odds to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Najee Harris’s odds to win OROY are sitting at +700.
Kyle Pitts leads all receivers with +1000 odds to win the OROY.

LAS VEGAS — The 2021 NFL rookie class has the potential to be one of the best in recent years, making the race for the Offensive Rookie of the Year one that could come down to the final weeks in the season.

The top-three shortest odds are held by all quarterbacks with Trevor Lawrence leading the way.

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Odds To Win

Trevor Lawrence +275
Justin Fields +575
Trey Lance +650
Najee Harris +700
Zach Wilson +750
Kyle Pitts +1000
Ja’Marr Chase +1200
Mac Jones +1200
DeVonta Smith +1600
Jaylen Waddle +2000
Javonte Williams +2200
Trey Sermon +2200
Travis Etienne +2500

Quarterback Offensive Rookie Of The Year Odds

Trevor Lawrence sits far ahead of the rest, as he was the number one pick in the draft.

Trevor Lawrence could not have asked for a better head coach in his first season being that Urban Meyer served as both a quarterback and wide receiver coach. That alone could give Lawrence a leg up above the rest of the quarterbacks on the legal sportsbooks. With Lawrence’s RB1 from Clemson (Travis Etienne) drafted by the Jaguars as well, this could give Lawrence some immediate familiarity.

The award is Lawrence’s to lose but is situated just ahead of two rookies in Justin Fields and Trey Lance – neither of who are guaranteed playing time in Week 1. Mac Jones, whose offensive rookie of the year odds sit towards the middle, is in a similar situation with the New England Patriots.

Zach Wilson is the only other rookie QB with guaranteed starting time but with a first-year, defensive-minded head coach in Robert Saleh, their offense could be more conservative, running the ball more often than not.

Running Backs Chasing Lawrence

Najee Harris will have the upside in terms of playing time as a rookie running back. With James Conner out of the picture and Benny Snell in the conversation of being cut from the Pittsburgh Steelers, that could leave Harris with room to run.

However, his impact may be varied. The Steelers’ offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, has spent the last 17 years of his career as an offensive coordinator as well as a quarterbacks coach.

Take the 2020 season as an example of the Steelers’ offensive mindset, where Ben Roethlisberger attempted 608 passes (second-most attempts in his 17 seasons).

With this, Javonte Williams, Trey Sermon, or Travis Etienne could all make their case for the award but have strong obstacles to overcome as well.

Javonte Williams will split time with Melvin Gordon, who is listed as the RB1.

Trey Sermon will get time as the RB2 with Jeff Wilson out indefinitely but he will have to compete with Raheem Mostert. However, Mostert has only played one fully healthy season (of 9) so if this trend continues, Sermon’s early ROY odds could prove to be very valuable.

Travis Etienne may be the most valuable amongst rookie running backs. Many claim that Etienne is an elite pass-catching back, providing even more value to Urban Meyer’s extensive passing scheme.

Could A Receiver Take The Award?

Of the receiving NFL rookies, Kyle Pitts has a chance to become the first tight end to win the OROY award. Pitts’ value with the Atlanta Falcons skyrocketed with Julio Jones making his way to the Tennessee Titans, leaving Pitts as the second receiving option behind Calvin Ridley.

The Falcons recorded the 11th most TE targets last season and will look to continue this under OC Dave Ragone.

Ja’Marr Chase could surprise some being that he was Joe Burrow’s top receiver at LSU. However, he is listed as the WR2 behind Tyler Boyd and could even find himself behind Tee Higgins at some point.

Aside from the fellow SEC route runners, DeVonta Smith is stepping into a WR1 role with the Philadelphia Eagles – a receiving core that has been notably weak over the years. With former Alabama teammate Jalen Hurts throwing him passes, the familiarity again could help impact the odds.

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Sam Profeta

Samuel has been writing professionally for 4 years. He comes from a sports writing background where he enjoys writing mostly about basketball and football both professional and collegiate. He is a recent graduate of Florida State University where he majored in Editing, Writing and Media with a minor in Communications. During his free time, you can find him watching or playing sports as well as playing videogames and listening to music.