Do This Betting on the Kentucky Derby for a 12% Return

The odds on Fierceness to win the Kentucky Derby are too close to that of Sierra Leone’s to make a play on the winner smart.
However, we smart sports bettors will hedge their bet on Fierceness by adding in a side prop bet on the Kentucky Derby.

LOUISVILLE – Look, it doesn’t happen often… but sportsbooks mess up their odds. In this case, the Kentucky Derby betting odds have a bit too much range comparing two bets together.

On the surface, Fierceness is the favorite at +250 odds. While Sierra Leone (+300) is just behind, horses #3-#7 are in their own cohort, well behind the two leaders.

Current Kentucky Derby Odds

17. Fierceness +250
2. Sierra Leone +300
11. Forever Young +850
4. Catching Freedom +900
8. Just A Touch +1100
7. Honor Marie +1400
3. Mystik Dan +2000
6. Just Steel +2200
18. Stronghold +2200

So what does this tell us? It’s likely a runoff between Fierceness and Sierra Leone with Forever Young, Catching Freedom and Just A Touch all having an opportunity as well.

But where is the free money?

Well, this is dependent on basically just one thing happening – Just a Touch NOT winning the Kentucky Derby.

Using Another Kentucky Derby Bet

Instead of playing the horse racing betting odds on who will win, focus on this prop bet instead.

How Many Words Will Be in The Name of the Derby Winner?

1 +170
2 -150
3 Or More +650

In the top 9 listed above, only Fierceness (the favorite) and Stronghold (the least-favored of the favorites) have one word in their name.

With this, place a bet on Fierceness to win the entire thing.

To hedge this, also play the fact that a horse with two words in its name will win the race (-150).

Now, we make profit assuming anyone in the top 9 wins the race except Just A Touch or Stronghold.

*Note that the example provided above is just an example of the odds ratio. This bet would work for as little as $1 or as much as $1 million. As long as your bet on Fierceness is just less than half of the prop bet, you’ll find a way to make ~12.5% back

Advertising Disclosure

In order to provide you with the best independent sports betting news and content LegalSportsBetting.com may receive a commission from partners when you make a purchase through a link on our site.

Michael Molter

After spending time scouting college basketball for Florida State University under Leonard Hamilton and the University of Alabama under Anthony Grant, Michael started writing focused on NBA content. A graduate of both schools, he now covers legal sports betting bills, sports betting revenue data, tennis betting odds, and sportsbook reviews. Michael likes to play basketball, hike, and kayak when not glued to the TV watching midlevel tennis matches.