Election Day Betting: How to Maximize Returns as Odds Shift

• Donald Trump is favored at -160 odds to win the election on Election Day.
• But these odds to win the 2024 election are expected to change rapidly as the night progresses.
• Timing your bets based on early results can be critical for later hedging or arbitrage betting.

PHILADELPHIA – Election Day is unlike any other betting experience, as live odds shift continuously, creating opportunities to capitalize on changes and make strategic decisions in real time.

By understanding how the sportsbooks with odds on the presidential race fluctuate the lines, knowing when to act can be just as important as what to act on.

Election Day Odds: A Look Back at Past Trends

History shows just how volatile odds on politics can be. In 2016, Hillary Clinton began Election Day as a heavy favorite, holding -650 odds compared to Donald Trump’s +400. As the night progressed and results from key swing states started to come in, her odds dipped, creating nearly even odds.

States like Florida and Pennsylvania leaned more heavily toward Trump and his lead solidified. Trump’s odds shifted to the favorite, delivering major profits for those who timed their bets correctly.

In 2020, Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s odds took bettors on a similar roller-coaster. Trump gained momentum early in the day as swing states appeared to favor him. At one point in the night, he was a -2000 favorite, implying near-certain victory.

But as late-counted votes flipped critical states, Biden surged back, with odds going as high as +1100 before his victory was confirmed.

This dramatic shift highlighted how crucial timing is for legal sports betting, especially those who placed bets on Biden. The same bet earlier that day at -120 odds ($83.33 profit on $100 wager) meant so little compared to the potential $1100 payout later.

Real-Time Betting Opportunities on Election Day

Election Day’s live betting allows for different strategies to boost returns. Take these live betting strategies into consideration.

Hedging Your Bet

If you start with a bet on one candidate at favorable odds, you may have the chance to place a smaller hedge or arbitrage bet on Kamala Harris too. Allowing you to cover multiple outcomes, if you started with a Harris bet but noticed every state’s poll closing time reporting positive numbers for her, you could hedge by placing a secondary bet on Trump later.

This ensures a profit regardless of the final result as the underdog has a higher absolute value than the favorite.

• Bet $100 on Harris at +140
• Hedge with a $115 bet on Trump at -115

As election night progresses, swing states like Georgia can significantly impact the odds. If early results indicate that Trump is underperforming, the odds may shift closer to a tie between Trump and Harris.

At these numbers, it would reduce one’s risk when betting on Kamala Harris to win the election. Instead of risking $100 to win $140, the hedge bet would see the risk drop to $0 as well as the potential profit to $25.

There’s no risk because a $115 bet on Trump at -115 odds would pay out $100 if he won. That profit would cancel out the bet on Kamala. Meanwhile, a $140 payout if Harris wins would still leave you with $25 after your Trump bet loses, should the election go that way.

At the end of the day, it’s placing $215 for about $25 in profit. But, a one-day 11.5% return is nothing to be upset about.

Pro Tip: The first bet you take should be whoever you think will gain ground early in the race. Popular swing states and others to pay attention to include Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida – who all see poll closing times before 8 p.m. ET. Whichever candidate you think will do better in these states compared to their expectations should be your starting point.

2024 Election Day Odds: Timing Is Everything

The most rewarding Election Day betting strategy can sometimes be patience. Observing the odds and betting when the numbers are most favorable can lead to significant payouts.

In 2020, waiting for Trump’s odds to peak before betting on Biden meant a 10-fold increase in payout, compared to betting earlier that day.

As polls close and swing states begin reporting, expect real-time odds to fluctuate dramatically. Whether you’re betting on Trump, Harris, or other candidates, understanding how to time your wagers can make all the difference in your payout.

Keep in mind that many legal sportsbooks online offer varying Election Day odds. Knowing how a few sportsbooks are grading candidates can help you act on the latest updates right away.

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News tags: 2024 election | Donald Trump | Hillary Clinton | Joe Biden | Kamala Harris | Politics | Presidential Race