Best Bet for Penn State vs SMU: Fade James Franklin

The best bets for the Penn State vs SMU CFP matchup are on the Mustangs to either cover as 8.5-point underdogs or to win outright with +275 odds.

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. – Sixth-ranked Penn State hosts 11th-ranked SMU in the first round of the College Football Playoff.

Some of the best college football betting sites have made Penn State an 8.5-point favorite over the Mustangs, but the best bet for the game is on SMU to cover and potentially win outright.

Penn State vs SMU Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
SMU	+8.5 (-110)	+275	O 54.0 (-110)
Penn State	-8.5 (-110)	-350	U 54.0 (-110)

Bet on Penn State vs SMU Here

Bet Against James Franklin in Big Games

James Franklin has earned a strong reputation as a head coach, which he has earned with a career win percentage of .687. That ranks 79th all-time and is third best among active coaches.

But, bettors have an excellent opportunity to bet against James Franklin this weekend based on his extreme struggles against ranked teams while at Penn State.

James Franklin’s Record vs Ranked Teams at PSU

Top 5: 1-14
Top 10: 3-19
Top 15: 6-24
Top 20: 11-25
Top 25: 14-27

SMU comes into the game as the 11th-ranked team in the College Football Playoffs, which means historically it is very likely that they will beat the Franklin-coached team.

Moneyline odds for SMU at College Football Playoff betting sites are listed at +275 at Bovada, +270 at BetOnline, and +250 at FanDuel. Bovada has the best odds on the Mustangs in Pennsylvania.

Another way to bet on SMU against Penn State is on the Mustangs to cover the spread.

SMU is essentially a universal 8.5-point underdog at all legal sports betting sites. Some stats that support the Mustangs covering the spread against Franklin’s Nittany Lions are:

Penn State has only beat two top 15 programs by 14+ points in 30 games while James Franklin has been the head coach. Once was against Utah in the 2023 Rose Bowl which saw Utes starting quarterback Cam Rising go down with an injury in the third quarter. The other time was in the 2019 Cotton Bowl against Memphis. Memphis had just lost head coach Mike Norvell to Florida State earlier in the month.
In Franklin’s 14 wins against top 25 teams, only five wins have been by more than 8 points. Overall, Penn State would have only covered as hypothetical 8.5-point favorites five times in the 41 games against top 25 teams during James Franklin’s tenure.

Given all of these trends, the best bets per this Penn State vs SMU betting preview are on the Mustangs to either cover or outright upset James Franklin and the Nittany Lions on Saturday.

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Brett Crown

Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.