Fantasy Football QB Strategy: Finding Value In Later Rounds

• Josh Allen holds a significant lead over the field as far as the average draft position from dual-threat quarterbacks.
• Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence aren’t too far off Lamar Jackson, despite being picked significantly later in fantasy drafts.

LAS VEGAS – Fantasy football drafting strategies are one of the most important factors in determining success throughout the season. One popular draft strategy is to wait until the later rounds to select a quarterback.

More often than not, the legal sportsbooks are accurate in their projections. However, since the 2021-2022 NFL season is still quite some time away, there are only five quarterbacks with season prop totals in passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns.

Of course, some of these lines will see the Over cash while others will see the Under, but it’s safe to assume these lines will be relatively accurate.

The Results

To calculate the rankings, each NFL season total prop bet was taken and transformed into fantasy points based on standard scoring (25 pass yards = 1 point, passing TD = 4 points, 10 rushing yards = 1 point, and rush TD = 6 points).

Josh Allen (ADP – 26.0)

With a projected 4550.5 passing yards, 34.5 passing TDs, 480 rushing yards and 8 rush TDs, Allen ranks atop the grouping with a projected 436.0 fantasy points.

Kyler Murray (ADP – 35.8)

Murray is given totals of 4150.0 passing yards, 25.5 passing TDs, 680 rushing yards and 7.5 rushing TDs and places behind Allen with a total of 381.0 projected fantasy points.

Lamar Jackson (ADP – 39.8)

Jackson has low passing totals but extreme rushing totals as his projections are 3450.5 passing yards, 25.5 passing TDs, 945 rushing yards and 7.5 rush TDs which amounts to 379.5 fantasy points.

Jalen Hurts (ADP – 78.0)

Hurts, in his first year as QB1, is given season totals of 3650.5 passing yards, 20.5 passing TDs, 655 rushing yards and 7.5 rush TDs giving him a season total of 338.5 fantasy points.

Trevor Lawrence (ADP 109.5)

Lawrence, as a rookie, is projected to record 4050.5 passing yards, 25.5 passing TDs, 325.5 rushing yards and 3.5 rushing TDs which leaves him with 317.5 fantasy points for the season.

Where Is The Value?

The value comes from each player’s average draft position (ADP). In the new 17-game season, players such as Jackson are being drafted much higher than Hurts or Lawrence, but not being projected to perform too much better.

Jackson is projected just 2.41 more fantasy points per game than Hurts despite being drafted 38 spots ahead of him. Further, Jackson is projected just 3.65 more fantasy points per game than Trevor Lawrence who is getting drafted 70 spots later on average.

Just how much those 3.65 points per week matters is up to the individual fantasy sports player, but between those 70 picks there is ample opportunity to make up for them.

Non-Considered Factors

These projections don’t take into account any interceptions or fumbles, which are worth -2 points in most fantasy leagues. It also leaves out the possibility of these quarterbacks getting receptions and receiving yards/TDs.

At the end of the day, these stats are unlikely to change much, but it is an extra thing to think about prior to drafting a quarterback in fantasy football.

News tags: Fantasy Football | football | Jalen Hurts | Josh Allen | Kyler Murray | Lamar Jackson | NFL | Trevor Lawrence