Is The Chiefs Spread vs. the Raiders A Trap Bet?

KC Chiefs bettors may remember last year when the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead as an 11-point underdog.
With similar betting lines, is this year’s AFC West matchup a trap, or can you rely on betting the Chiefs to cover the spread?

KANSAS CITY – The Kansas City Chiefs are set to host the Las Vegas Raiders as 12.5-point favorites Friday with the total set at 42.5. This matchup brings plenty of legal sports betting intrigue, considering the surprising outcome of last year’s Christmas Day game when the Chiefs fell 20-14 as 11-point home favorites.

Is this year’s spread another trap for bettors, or can Patrick Mahomes and company prove why they’re among the NFL’s elite?

Why It Could Be A Trap

Kansas City’s recent history against AFC West opponents as double-digit favorites reveals a mixed track record. Since December 2020, the Chiefs are 4-1 straight up (SU) in these games but just 2-5 against the spread (ATS).

While they typically find a way to win outright, covering large spreads has been a challenge—especially in divisional matchups.

On the other side, the Raiders have consistently struggled in AFC West road games. In their last five such contests, they’ve scored 18, 10, 20, 17, and 17 points, with the under hitting in six of their last eight divisional road games. This trend aligns with their struggles to generate offense against familiar opponents and casts doubt on their ability to keep pace with the Chiefs’ high-powered offense.

Total Points Projections

Team	Over	Under
Chiefs	27.5 (-120)	27.5 (-110)
Raiders	13.5 (-145)	13.5 (+110)

Adding to the intrigue, Kansas City’s team total is set at 27.5 points, with the over priced at -120 and the under at -110. Meanwhile, Las Vegas’ team total is set at 13.5 points, heavily favoring the over at -145.

These lines reflect expectations for a one-sided affair, but last year’s result warns against assuming an easy Kansas City cover.

Why It’s Not a Trap

The Chiefs’ recent loss to the Raiders as heavy favorites may seem significant, but context matters. Since that game, Kansas City has rebounded in double-digit favorite situations, going 6-2 ATS as two-possession home favorites since December 2021.

Kansas City’s offense enters this game healthy and poised to exploit the Raiders’ defensive vulnerabilities. Also, NFL sportsbooks show that KC players are favored to score first, emphasizing their potential to control the game early.

Notable Chiefs TD Odds – To Score First

Isiah Pacheco: +360
Travis Kelce: +550
Patrick Mahomes: +1600

Divisional matchups are notoriously unpredictable, but Kansas City’s red-zone efficiency and Mahomes’ dominance make them a safer bet to cover the 12.5-point spread this time around.

Las Vegas will need a near-perfect game to compete. The Raiders’ team total of 13.5 points reflects a lack of faith in their ability to consistently find the end zone, especially against a Chiefs defense ranked among the league’s best.

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Michael Molter

After spending time scouting college basketball for Florida State University under Leonard Hamilton and the University of Alabama under Anthony Grant, Michael started writing focused on NBA content. A graduate of both schools, he now covers legal sports betting bills, sports betting revenue data, tennis betting odds, and sportsbook reviews. Michael likes to play basketball, hike, and kayak when not glued to the TV watching midlevel tennis matches.