Joe Mixon Player Props in AFC Championship Rematch

• Joe Mixon’s rush yard total is 59.5 with -115 odds to go under.
• He also sports a rushing + receiving prop of 87.5 at -115 for the over.
• Mixon has posted career-high receiving stats this season.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – A rematch of last year’s AFC Championship between the Cincinnati Bengals and the one-point favorited Kansas City Chiefs kicks off Sunday evening. With two star-studded offenses, players like starting running back Joe Mixon have been given many player props for the game.

Legal sports betting sites have set both rushing and receiving props for the former pro-bowler. Some of these include a 59.5 rushing yards as well as an 87.5 total yards prop, each coming in at -115 odds for either the under or over.

Mixon’s Career Role has Flipped

One of the most important developments for Joe Mixon this season is the complete change of his role in the Bengals offense. In terms of rushing, Mixon posted the second-least yards, yards per carry, and rush attempts of his career (minimum 14 games).

However, he has also posted career highs in receptions, targets, receiving yards, and receiving first downs despite missing three games.

Bettors will want to note that the Chiefs rushing defense this year has been quite stout behind all-pro defensive tackle Chris Jones. They allow 109.3 rush yards per game, which is ninth least in the league. Against defenses that give up equal or less yards per game, Mixon averaged 58.7 yards per game, but did go over his 59.5 prop in four out of the six regular season games.

Still, Mixon reached the total mostly through his large workload, as he only went at or under his season carries average of 15 once in the four games of 60+ rush yards. This means that Mixon would need to get a large volume of carries or be very efficient to reach such a total.

All in all, Mixon is a great player but a combination of middling efficiency and an expected pass-heavy game makes his rush yards prop of 59.5 a strong candidate to go under at -115 odds, allowing bettors to capitalize on the solid odds.

Combined Prop Offers Value Through Receiving Work

With NFL oddsmakers setting a combined rushing and receiving yards prop of 87.5 at -115 odds to go over, Mixon bettors will look to his improved receiving prowess to help him get there.

Mixon matched his six games of over his rush yards prop with an equivalent six games over his total yards prop of 87.5. But, the main reason for recommending under on rush and over on combined lies in the Achilles’ heel of the Chiefs defense that is receiving backs. Throughout the regular season, the Chiefs were bottom three in receptions (6.6), targets (8), and receiving yards (48.6) allowed to running backs.

The combination of Mixon’s newfound receiving skills, the Chiefs attackable RB pass defense, and two Bengals offensive lineman remaining injured makes the over for Mixon’s combined yards at 87.5 a strong wager with -115 odds as he will look to make his mark through the air in a high-flying duel between Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow.

News tags: Chris Jones | Cincinnati Bengals | Joe Burrow | Joe Mixon | Kansas City Chiefs | NFL | Patrick Mahomes