Mahomes vs. Herbert: Betting Insights and Prop Bets

• Patrick Mahomes is an underdog to throw over 1.5 touchdown passes against LAC.
• Travis Kelce prop bets have him +350 to score a TD and catch a pass over 20 yards.
• Kansas City is a touchdown favorite, despite the lowest over-under (40 points) in the Mahomes-Herbert matchup.

LOS ANGELES – For Patrick Mahomes’ 100th regular season game, he will be a touchdown favorite over the Los Angeles Chargers.

A touchdown spread at Missouri sportsbooks makes the Kansas City Chiefs moneyline -380 and an over-under sitting at 40 points due to injury concerns with Justin Herbert.

While this low over-under is out of the normal, the Mahomes-Herbert matchup in LA has seen their over-under drop in every game.

Game	Over-Under	Result
9/20/2020	55 points	Under
12/16/2021	52.5 points	Under
11/20/2022	48.5 points	Under

Likewise, the Chiefs spread advantage took similar routes, where Mahomes opened as a nine-point favorite against LA (pre-Herbert) but dropped down to a field goal favorite before settling near 4-5.5 points when Herbert came to town.

Winning five of six against Herbert and seven of the last eight against the Chargers, Mahomes hasn’t been an underdog to LA at California sports betting sites since his first matchup against them.

But the focus should be on scoring, which has been easy for Mahomes, scoring 30+ in seven of his last nine road games against the AFC West. Against the Chargers specifically, he has scored 30+ in each of the last two games on the road.

Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets

The legal NFL betting sites are listing props for Mahomes that seem rather attainable.

Mahomes Props

• Over 254.5 Passing Yards -115
• Under 254.5 Passing Yards -105
• Over 1.5 Passing TDs -105
• Under 1.5 Passing TDs -125

In the last three games against the Chargers, Mahomes has seen his production increase immensely. Hitting the under (235 yards) in the first matchup of 2022, Mahomes has since gone for 329 and 424 passing yards.

Likewise, his touchdown count increased in every game too (2, 3, 4), despite hitting the over from jump street.

But don’t expect the Chiefs to be the first scorer or Mahomes to throw a TD to start off the game. Over the last three matchups, a field goal has been the first points scored with LA scoring first twice – two notable team prop bets for the NFL.

On the other side, don’t look for Herbert (or Taylor Heinicke) to dominate. Herbert has seen his production decrease over the last three games, with sacks playing a major part of this.

Game	Passing Yards	Passing TDs	Times Sacked
October 22nd, 2023	259	1	5
November 20th, 2022	280	2	5
September 15th, 2022	334	3	2

Game Trends + Player Props

While Herberts’ production dropped each game, scoring is still expected often. In each of the last three matchups, there has been a 40+ yard touchdown in all of them.

Travis Kelce has been electric vs the Chargers, recording 13 and 12 targets in his last two games accounting for 179 and 115 yards, respectively.

For this game, legal sports betting sites list Kelce’s projected receiving yards at 46.5 with standard odds on the over and under.

A lack of production has this number lower than it probably should be, but backers can find even more value with a special bet from Bovada.

This requested special means some bettor asked Bovada to post these odds and they did:

• Kelce Anytime TD & Over 19.5 Yards Longest Reception+350

Seeming too good to be true, this Travis Kelce prop bet is in line with past results, despite a rough start to the 2024 season.

Game	Receiving Yards	Touchdowns	Longest Reception
October 22nd, 2023	179	1	53
November 20th, 2022	115	3	34
September 15th, 2022	51	0	19
December 16th, 2021	191	2	69
September 26th, 2021	104	0	28
September 20th, 2020	90	1	20

Breaking the longest reception marker in five of the last six and scoring in four of them, the +350 odds are too valuable to pass up.

Outside of Mahomes’ top target, NFL bookies have prop odds for Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy as well.

• Rashee Rice: O/U 76.5 Receiving Yards
• Xavier Worthy: O/U 39.5 Receiving Yards

News tags: AFC West | Bovada | Justin Herbert | Kansas City Chiefs | Los Angeles Chargers | NFL | Patrick Mahomes | Rashee Rice | Travis Kelce | Xavier Worthy