Memorial Odds Undervalue SG: Tee-To-Green & Around Green

Rory McIlroy is the best bet for the Memorial Tournament (+1100) based on strokes gained around the green and tee-to-green.
According to those same statistics, betting odds longshot Chris Kirk (+6600) may be the only golfer who can compete with him this weekend.

DUBLIN, Ohio – A loaded field of golfers are set to begin competing to win the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village beginning on Thursday. Online sportsbooks suggest that this may be a very close tournament, with six players with odds of +1800 or shorter.

The Memorial Tournament Odds

Jon Rahm +1000
Rory McIlroy +1100
Patrick Cantlay +1600
Cameron Smith +1800
Collin Morikawa +1800
Xander Schauffele +1800

Betting The Memorial Based On Relative Statistics

Last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge important course statistics were used to find the golfers with the best odds to win the tournament. The highest-rated golfer did not win, but the second and third highest-rated golfers (Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns) came in first and second.

That validation proves that there may be some insight to glean from attacking golf tournaments this way.

According to Riley Hamel of Golfweek the most important stats to pay attention to are strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained around the green.

Using each player’s last 50 rounds as a sample size, one of the favorites and one long shot are significantly ahead of every other golfer.

Highest Combined Strokes Gained From Tee-to-Green And Around The Green

Name	Total	World Golf Rank	Odds
Rory McIlroy	2.172	8	+1100
Chris Kirk	2.130	63	+6600
Jordan Spieth	1.683	10	+2000
Shane Lowry	1.678	27	+2500
Matt Fitzpatrick	1.645	15	+2500

Using those two factors may give PGA Tour betting players a significant leg up when the tournament tees off tomorrow morning.

Comparing Chris Kirk And Rory McIlroy To Field

According to the World Golf Rankings, Chris Kirk may not be anywhere near Rory McIlroy on the golf course. According to their strokes gained around the green and tee to green, Chris Kirk may actually be the only player in the field that can compete with McIlroy.

Kirk and McIlroy are the only two players in this tournament who are in the top five of both strokes gained around the green (ARG) and from tee-to-green (T2G).

Tee-to-Green And Around the Green Leaders

SG T2G Leaders	SG Tee-to-Green	SG ARG Leaders	SG Around Green
Rory McIlroy	1.676	Matt Kuchar	0.636
Chris Kirk	1.565	David Lingmerth	0.590
Jon Rahm	1.531	Chris Kirk	0.564
Will Zalatoris	1.470	Matt Jones	0.541
Shane Lowry	1.464	Rory McIlroy	0.496

Jon Rahm is highly rated based on his tee-to-green statistics, but legal online sportsbooks may have made a mistake making him the favorite over Rory McIlroy and the 63rd ranked golfer in the world, Chris Kirk.

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Brett Crown

Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.