Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers Betting Preview

• The best bet for the Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins game on Thanksgiving is on the over for the 47.5 total based on the offenses for both teams when their quarterbacks are healthy.
• Two players who are good bets to help the game go over 47.5 points by scoring touchdowns are Tucker Kraft (+155) and De’Von Achane (-125).

GREEN BAY, Wisc. – Betting odds for the Thanksgiving game between the Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins have been posted, with betting sites making the Packers 3.5-point favorites. The best bet of the game may not be on either team covering that spread, but instead on the over for the 47.5-point total and on Tucker Kraft and De’Von Achane scoring touchdowns that help the total go over.

Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins Thanksgiving Odds

Bet the Over on Packers vs Dolphins

The 47.5-point total set by Thanksgiving NFL betting sites for the Packers vs Dolphins matchup is likely to go over for many reasons. The most basic of them all is that both offenses are better than what their season-long stats make them appear due to the injuries that caused Jordan Love and Tua Tagovailoa to miss games.

Packers and Dolphins Stats Based on Quarterback Snap Counts

• Packers Points Per Game When Love Doesn’t Play 75% + of Snaps: 25.33
• Packers Points Per Game When Love Plays 75% + of Snaps: 26.5
• Dolphins Points Per Game When Tua Doesn’t Play 75% + of Snaps: 10
• Dolphins Points Per Game When Tua Plays 75% + of Snaps: 27

The Packers’ offense is only 1 point per game better when Jordan Love plays at least 75% of snaps at quarterback, which is not overly significant when taking the over in this game.

What is significant is Tua Tagovailoa’s snap percentage importance to the Dolphins offense. They go from 10.0 points per game when he plays less than 75% of snaps to 27 when he plays most of the game.

For context, 10.0 points per game would be the worst in the NFL. The New York Giants average a league-worst 14.8 points per game. 27 points per game would have the Dolphins ranked as the sixth-best scoring offense in the league.

Here are the takeaways you should note in how those snap percentage-based averages impact why the over is the best bet:

• The season-long offensive scoring numbers for the Miami Dolphins are completely out of whack given their inept offense when Tua sits. They average 27 points per game when he plays 75% or more of snaps, but their average points per game this season is only 19.5 due to how terrible they were when he played less than three-fourths of a game.
• Based on those convoluted season-long averages, NFL betting sites have set the total for this game at 47.5 points. If you simply added the average points per game for both offenses based on full-season stats, that equals 45.7 points. If you instead added together the average points for each offense when their quarterbacks play 75%+ of snaps, that equals 53.5 points.
• Defense obviously plays a part in choosing when to bet on the over or under for a total. But, neither of these defenses ranks in the top quartile of points allowed per game or per drive, so they were not considered a negative.

Bet on Tucker Kraft to Score a Touchdown

Tucker Kraft has +155 odds at online sports betting sites to score a touchdown against the Dolphins on Thanksgiving.

Kraft has scored six touchdowns in his last eight games, scoring once in five of those outings.

He leads the Green Bay Packers in red zone targets this season with 12. The next closest on the Packers is Romeo Doubs with seven. Doubs has a concussion and is now considered questionable to play, which could lead to even more targets to Kraft.

Given his recent production and potential for even more red zone targets, betting on Tucker Kraft touchdown odds at +155 is a strong option ahead of his matchup with the Dolphins.

Bet on De’Von Achane to Score a Touchdown

As discussed above, the Miami Dolphins offense has been totally different this season when Tua Tagovailoa has played at least 75% of the snaps at quarterback. There may be no player who has benefited more when Tua plays than De’Von Achane.

Consider his touchdowns in games that Tua has played at least 75% of the snaps in versus when the quarterback did not.

• In the six games that Tua has played at least 75% of snaps, Achane has scored a total of seven touchdowns. He scored at least once in five of those six games.
• In the five games that Tua did not play at least 75% of the Dolphin’s snaps at quarterback, Achane scored only once. That one touchdown came on a pass by Tagovailoa before he got hurt in the Bills game.
• He has eight touchdowns this season and they all have occurred when Tua is playing.
• Given his production when Tua plays, one of the best bets for Thanksgiving night when the Packers play the Dolphins is on De’Von Achane to score a touchdown with -125 odds.

News tags: Buffalo Bills | De’Von Achane | Florida | Green Bay Packers | Jordan Love | Miami Dolphins | NFL | Romeo Doubs | Thanksgiving | Tua Tagovailoa | Tucker Kraft | Wisconsin