Miami Heat Vs. Boston Celtics Public Splits, Betting Trends to Know

• The Boston Celtics are favored to beat the Miami Heat with -140 odds.
• The Celtics have 79% of bets to cover the spread.
• Miami is 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog between 2-3 points.

MIAMI – A rematch of the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals is set for Friday night between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat in which the Celtics are going in as 2.5-point favorites on the road. While many are expecting this to be a close matchup the whole way through, there is reason to believe that Boston could run away with this one.

Boston Celtics Vs. Miami Heat

• Moneyline: Celtics (-140) vs. Heat (+120)
• Spread: Celtics -2.5
• Total: 219 Points

As for where the public is leaning on this one, Bovada is taking in significant action on them to both win outright and cover the spread with ease. They are looking at 68% of total bets placed on their side of the moneyline and a massive 80% bet share on them covering the spread.

Trouble in Paradise

One of the main reasons behind Boston running away with this one comes from the poor play of Miami when legal oddsmakers have them set with underdog odds at home. In their last six games that Miami has been an underdog between 2-3 points at home, they have gone an awful 1-5 against the spread. Overall, in the last five seasons when a home underdog, they’ve barely stayed competitive at a 47.7% cover rate for a 21-23-1 ATS record that has them failing to cover the spread by an average of -3.4 points.

Looking at what Boston is bringing to the table as a road team favorite, they were the second-best team in the league last season ATS when favored on the road with a 72% cover rate for an 18-7 ATS record. They also averaged a margin of victory of 14.1 points with a +7.7 average cover margin. That alone should have some looking at their -5-point alternate line with +125 ($100 to win $125) value on it.

Going even further on the Cs success, when NBA oddsmakers have their line set as a 2-3 point favorite on the road, they have thriven to a 5-1 ATS record in their last six in that situation. It is also worth noting that in all five of those spread wins in that scenario, they’ve won the game by 10+ points each time which backs their alternate line even stronger.

What to Expect

The main weakness that has hurt Miami tremendously has been their play in the paint on both sides of the ball and it all starts with Bam Adebayo. At 6’9, Bam is undersized for a center in the league and has struggled against some of the leagues top big men and it showed in last years playoff series against the Celtics where he averaged 8.4 rpg and was outrebounded in each game of the series.

The struggle looks to have continued on into this season after getting destroyed on the boards in the Heats first game against the Chicago Bulls where Nikola Vucevic had 17 total rebounds (5 offensive) to his 9 (1 offensive). With Miami’s struggles looking to continue, Boston could pick up where they left off in the ECF and win this one in the paint.

News tags: Bam Adebayo | basketball | Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | NBA