Michigan Democratic Primary Odds – Can Sanders Pull An Upset Again?

• Former Vice President Joe Biden is a heavy favorite to win Michigan’s Democratic Primary, from odds of -1500 to -3000 depending on where you bet.
• His opponent, Senator Bernie Sanders, won the Michigan primary in 2016 as a heavy underdog.
• FiveThirtyEight projects Biden to win 55% of the vote, with Sanders winning only 32%.
• Biden is the safe bet, but a bet on Sanders could pay huge dividends if the cards fall right.

LANSING, Mich. – With polls opening on Tuesday, former Vice President Joe Biden is now a heavy favorite to win the Michigan Democratic primary election.

His opponent, Senator Bernie Sanders, looked to be a runaway favorite early in the primary process, but has seen his momentum slowly diminish throughout the race as opposing candidates have dropped out of the race and consolidated their support behind Biden.

Prior to last Tuesday, also known as Super Tuesday, the Democratic field was crowded and Sanders looked to be leading the pack decisively.

Unfortunately for Sanders, surprise dropouts and endorsements from Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar helped Biden surge to take a sizable lead in both the popular vote and total delegate count.

There are still roughly 100 unassigned delegates from Super Tuesday, but all indications are that Biden was the unquestioned victor. Sanders now has a lot of ground to cover if he wants to catch Biden and force the Democrats into a brokered convention.

Polls in Michigan opened today at 7 a.m. local time and will close at 8 p.m. Voters who show up to polling stations late in the day or who wait through long lines will still be allowed to vote as long as they are in line prior to the polls closing.

For political primary betting purposes, whichever candidate receives a greater share of the popular vote will be considered the winner. Current betting odds for the Michigan primary are:

Who Is The Best Bet To Win Today?

Biden has engineered a rapid turnaround in the past two weeks. FiveThirtyEight, a political and sports website focused on data analytics, projects Biden to win roughly 55% of the popular vote in Michigan. The same projection only has Sanders winning 32% of the vote.

Biden is clearly the safer bet, but it should be noted that FiveThirtyEight’s methodology is far from foolproof. It averages out various polls and weights them based on a reliability grade (e.g., polls graded as more reliable are weighted more heavily), but that hasn’t always produced accurate results in the past.

In 2016, this method notably gave Hillary Clinton a 99% chance to win Michigan as polls showed her 20 points ahead of Sanders—roughly the same margin Biden now holds. Instead, Sanders pulled off a shocking upset to win.

A second consecutive Sanders upset in Michigan is far from impossible, but it appears that there’s a good reason for Biden to be such a prohibitive favorite.

Regardless of which candidate you want to bet on, MyBookie’s odds are much more favorable to players right now than Bovada’s.

News tags: Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Democratic Primary | FiveThirtyEight | Joe Biden | Michigan | Michigan Democratic Primary | Michigan Election | Pete Buttigieg