Nebraska's Electoral Drama: Betting State’s Vote Allocation

Nebraska legislators are discussing the movement of Nebraska becoming a winner take all state for electoral voting.
This potential change is an effort by Nebraska Republicans to gather more electoral votes for Donald Trump.
Odds suggest that no change will come this year, but legislators are adamant about the change, even if for the next election.

LINCOLN, Neb. – As the 2024 election approaches, Nebraska’s unique electoral system is in the spotlight, with a Republican push to shift its allocation to a winner-take-all format. This move could benefit former President Donald Trump, and betting markets have taken notice.

Currently, the legal sports betting odds signal that a change is highly unlikely.

Will Nebraska switch to winner-take-all?

Yes+1000
No-4000

Nebraska’s Split Electoral System

Unlike most states, Nebraska divides its five electoral votes by congressional district. While most of the state leans Republican, the 2nd District, which includes Omaha, is competitive and could go to Vice President Kamala Harris. In a tight election, even a single electoral vote could be decisive.

Nebraska Congressional Voting Odds

District	Republican Odds	Democrat Odds
District 1	-20000	+1800
District 2	+220	-300
District 3	-20000	+1800

Republicans, led by Trump allies, have pushed to switch Nebraska to a winner-take-all system, but this effort hit a roadblock when State Senator Mike McDonnell opposed the change:

“I will oppose any attempted changes to our Electoral College system before the 2024 election. I also encouraged him and will encourage my colleagues in the Unicameral to pass a constitutional amendment during next year’s session, so that the people of Nebraska can once and for all decide this issue the way it should be decided – on the ballot.”

With this opposition, Republicans lack the necessary votes to pass the bill and the odds reflect McDonnell’s opposition. For those taking a risk on +1000, the path for a last-minute shift seems closed, especially with less than two months until Election Day.

Nebraska’s 2nd District could play a crucial role in determining the next President. A single electoral vote could prevent an Electoral College tie or even decide the winner, making Nebraska’s vote all the more significant. Despite lobbying efforts, the presidential betting odds and political realities suggest that no change is coming, similar to Nebraska LB76 in 2021-2022

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Michael Molter

After spending time scouting college basketball for Florida State University under Leonard Hamilton and the University of Alabama under Anthony Grant, Michael started writing focused on NBA content. A graduate of both schools, he now covers legal sports betting bills, sports betting revenue data, tennis betting odds, and sportsbook reviews. Michael likes to play basketball, hike, and kayak when not glued to the TV watching midlevel tennis matches.