- Google now bans prediction market advertising across Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York, and Ohio.
- Prediction markets now have their own section on Google’s ad policies page where Google explains advertising for these entities must comply with location specific criteria.
- A survey from S&P Global showed that most prediction market trades are on sports, and the majority of traders on non-sports outcomes also trade on sports.
LOS ANGELES – Google’s new advertising policy includes a section for prediction markets and bans these platforms from advertising across five states. Google made the change “due to the inherent complexities, speculative nature, and unique regulatory classification involved in trading Prediction Market contracts,” so now Google Ads for these products must fulfill their specific advertising criteria.
Operators must receive certification and approval from Google to run ads for prediction market products, as well as proper licensing in compliance with local laws. The full Prediction Markets page lists the United States (excluding Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York, and Ohio) as “approved target locations,” and each of the excluded states has sued operators to block sports event contracts.
The prediction market policy is handled differently than that for sports betting under Google’s gambling and games policy. That advertising policy simply states that online casino and sportsbook advertisers must be licensed in the states/location they intent to target, while prediction advertising requires entities to be a DCM with CFTC authorization or a brokerage since their products are federally regulated.
The ad limitation for prediction markets comes amid a rise in sports event-contract trading activity, which 70% of users have traded on, according to a survey from S&P Global.
Prediction Markets Survey Shows Sports Are The Driving Force
A survey released by S&P Global showcased the prominence of sports trading activity on prediction markets.
Of the 10% of respondents that said they traded on a yes-or-no exchange this year, 70% said they had traded on sports-related outcomes, compared to 36% trading on economic or financial outcomes and 33% trading on political outcomes. While roughly 26% of respondents indicated they had traded on news and entertainment outcomes, and 11% cited trading on other outcomes, such as word mentions, weather or cryptocurrency, a majority of those trading on non-sports outcomes also trade on sporting events.
The survey states that “For example, 68% of those placing trades on political outcomes also traded on sports outcomes. Approximately half of those trading on news and entertainment outcomes also traded on elections (49%) or economic outcomes (56%). Four in ten (44%) prediction market users trade in multiple event categories (1.7 event categories, on average).”
