NFL Saturday Bets: Mahomes Props + AFC North Hedging

• The Kansas City Chiefs are 3.5 point favorites over the Houston Texans for the 1 p.m. NFL game on Saturday.
• Afterward, the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers face off with inverse odds compared to the AFC North wagers.

KANSAS CITY – The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs meet for the first time with CJ Stroud as quarterback. Their last meeting – a December 2022 matchup ended 30-24 in favor of Kansas City.

Still, Patrick Mahomes has been almost unstoppable against Houston. In four career games, he has 1141 passing yards with 13 touchdowns and one interception on a 71.3% completion percentage. Compare that to Mahomes player props for Saturday and it falls in line with previous thoughts that Mahomes bets are undervalued.

Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets

• Over/Under 225.5 Passing Yards
• Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (Under -135)
• Over/Under 20.5 Passing Completions (Over -135)
• Over/Under 32.5 Passing Attempts (Over -135)
• Over/Under 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (Over -130)
• Over Under 35.5 Yards On Longest Completion

However, there is a Mahomes injury at play to consider, which has lead to his decrease in usage and production over the last three weeks.

• Week 13: 26/46 306 yards 1TD 0 INT
• Week 14: 24/37 210 yards 1TD 0 INT
• Week 15: 19/38 159 yards 2TD 0 INT

With the Chiefs scoring 21 or less in all three of these games, it marked the third time in Mahomes’ career that the Chiefs have failed to break 21 in three straight.

Regardless, NFL sportsbooks list the Chiefs projected total point scored at 21.5, making bettors put themselves out on a ledge.

Total Points Kansas City Chiefs

• Over 21.5 -125
• Under 21.5 -105

Steelers Ravens

In this AFC North battle, the division is on the line. While the Pittsburgh Steelers have already clinched a playoff berth, the Ravens hope to secure their postseason spot as well.

Odds On Who Wins The AFC North

• Pittsburgh Steelers -160
• Baltimore Ravens +130

Surprisingly, the Steelers are favored to win the division, despite odds for the Ravens that are extremely disproportionate for Week 16.

While the Ravens odds have them at -300, the Steelers division odds are favored because even if they lose, they control their own destiny.

NFL tiebreaker rules have head to head matchups as the first tiebreaker for the division lead. A Ravens win Saturday would split the series 1-1 on the year. Then, the next tiebreaker is focused on divisional standings, where both teams would finish 4-2 assuming a Ravens W. It would have to go to NFL tiebreaker #3, which is common games winning percentage. Per the Post Gazette, “The Steelers can finish 9-3 in such games if they beat the Chiefs and Bengals, while the best the Ravens can do is 8-4.”

Either way, the first NFL Saturday games of the season are here and legal sports betting sites are giving us many ways to finish off the regular season with a chance to add to our bankrolls before the playoffs.

News tags: AFC North | Baltimore Ravens | CJ Stroud | Houston Texas | Kansas City Chiefs | NFL | Patrick Mahomes | Pittsburgh Steelers