Pats 7-Point Home Underdogs In Brady’s First Return To Foxborough

• Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 7-point road favorites in Brady’s return to Foxborough against his former coach, Bill Belichick.
• Mac Jones and the New England Patriots hold (+265) moneyline odds to defeat the defending Super Bowl champions and improve to 2-2.

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. – Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots (1-2, 1-2 ATS) take on Bruce Arians’ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1, 1-2 ATS) on Sunday Night Football.

Tampa Bay is a 7-point favorite over the Patriots, with a points total set at 49 by legal online sportsbooks. Tampa Bay’s moneyline odds sit at (-330), while the Patriots’ moneyline odds are currently (+265).

The biggest storyline surrounding this week’s Sunday Night Football matchup is Bucs quarterback Tom Brady’s return to Gillette Stadium to take on Belichick and his former team for the first time since departing from New England for Tampa Bay. After winning yet another Super Bowl with the Bucs in 2020, Brady has started the season off strong in 2021, leading the NFL in completions (97) and touchdown passes (10) on just 2 interceptions.

Rookie Mac Jones, on the other hand, has stepped in as Brady’s replacement in 2021 after New England struggled with Cam Newton as the signal-caller in 2020. Jones has managed a 67.5% completion percentage with just 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions as New England limped out of the gate, starting their season 1-2.

Jones struggled in last week’s loss against the New Orleans Saints, tossing 3 interceptions and just 1 touchdown. The Patriots’ chances hinge on Jones being able to find the end zone this week as they have rushed for just 2 total touchdowns through 2021.

Jones’ performance is even more important after the Patriots lost pass-catching and change-of-pace running back James White for the season Wednesday. With the injury to White, expect lead-back Damien Harris to be even more involved for the Patriots.

Harris has props of 45.5 rushing yards, 12.5 carries, and 1.5 receptions for this week.

Bill Belichick and the Patriots will have a hard time using the traditional Pats approach of taking away the opposing team’s top weapon this week: the Bucs feature perhaps the best receiving corps in the NFL, with Mike Evans (56.5 receiving yards prop this week), Chris Godwin (62.5), and former Patriot Rob Gronkowski (39.5) headlining the group. Brady loves to spread the ball around, completing passes to 10 separate players in the Bucs’ Week 3 loss to the Rams, including eight players who caught multiple passes.

While the on-field statistics favor Tampa Bay in this one, the betting trends tell a different story – the Patriots are 5-1 outright in their last six games as a home underdog, while Tampa Bay is 1-4 against the spread in their last five Sunday Night Football appearances.

These trends may be concerning for Tampa Bay, but after the Bucs opened as 3.5-point favorites, the line has shifted drastically to 7, indicating a lot of money wagered on the Bucs.

Week 4’s Sunday Night Football will kick off at 8:20 PM EST in New England.

News tags: Bill Belichick | Bruce Arians | Cam Newton | Chris Godwin | Damien Harris | football | James White | Los Angeles Rams | Mac Jones | Mike Evans | New England Patriots | New Orleans Saints | NFL | Rob Gronkowski | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tom Brady