Arizona State vs Texas Betting Prediction: Bet ASU +13.0

The best bet at betting sites with Peach Bowl odds is on Arizona State to cover the spread against Texas as a 13-point underdog because the Wildcats thrive on the road and the Longhorns underperform.

ATLANTA – Peach Bowl odds for the College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup of Texas versus Arizona State have made the Longhorns 13-point favorites. Based on the large spread and the location of the game, the Sun Devils are the best bet to cover the spread.

College Football Playoff Odds – Arizona State vs Texas

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Texas	-13.0 (-105)	-490	O 51.0 (-110)
Arizona State	+13.0 (-115)	+355	U 51.0 (-110)

Bet on the Peach Bowl Odds at Bovada

Bet on Arizona State to Cover the Spread

The Peach Bowl odds set by legal college football betting sites are indicative of the perceived talent differential between Texas and Arizona State. That talent differential has been built over time in the heads of both bettors and experts throughout the season.

The most obvious example of that differential can be seen by looking at how each team has ranked in the AP college football poll all season.

Texas has been ranked 6th or better throughout the entire season, while Arizona State has only been ranked for four weeks all year. The Sun Devils have never ranked higher than 10th.

However, the differences in the talent level between Texas and Arizona State should not be enough for legal online betting sites to set the spread at nearly two touchdowns.

Specifically, the spread odds for Arizona State vs Texas should not be 13 points because the Longhorns have consistently underperformed when not playing in Austin.

Texas has played a total of six games at either a neutral site or on the road this season. They have only won by 13+ points in two of those games.

9/7: Texas beat Michigan 31-12 in Ann Arbor
10/12: Texas beat Oklahoma 34-3 at a neutral site (Dallas, Texas)
10/26: On the road, Texas defeated Vanderbilt 27-24
11/16: In Little Rock, Texas beat Arkansas 20-10
11/30: Versus Texas A&M in College Station, Texas beat the Aggies 17-7
12/7: In the SEC Championship game in Atlanta, Texas lost to Georgia 19-22

Those six non-home games for Texas show three important trends that suggest Arizona State to cover the spread is the best bet for the Peach Bowl:

Texas has not won by 13+ when they are not at home in their last four tries
Texas is 0-1 straight up in neutral sites against ranked opponents this season
The only two times that Texas has won by at least 13 points on the road/at a neutral site was against two teams that would finish the season unranked and with 5+ losses

Overall, it makes sense that Texas would perform better at home than on the road. But, they are an extremely different team depending on where they play.

Another example of this is that Texas’s average margin of victory is more than 27 points per game at home and is just over 12+ per game on the road. If you remove their first two games on the road/at a neutral site that margin of victory drops to five points.

On the contrary to Texas’s struggles away from home, Arizona State has thrived when not playing Tempe.

Since starting quarterback Sam Leavitt came back from an injury at the start of November, Arizona State has played as a true road team three times and once more at a neutral site.

Their results in those road games have been stellar:

11/2: On the road at Oklahoma State, Arizona State won 42-21
11/16: In Manhattan, KS, Arizona State beat Kansas State 24-14
11/30: At Arizona for rivalry weekend, ASU beat the Wildcats 49-7
12/7: For the Big 12 Championship in Arlington, TX (neutral site), Arizona State beat Iowa State 45-19

Given those strong road results for Arizona State and the disappointing results for Texas when they are either on the road or at a neutral site, the best bet at Peach Bowl betting sites is for the Sun Devils to cover the spread as 13-point underdogs versus the Longhorns.

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Brett Crown

Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.