Predicting the Exact Margin of Victory for Super Bowl 57

• Exact margin of winning props like three (+400), seven (+650), and 10 (+850) points have been posted by sportsbooks.
• The most common winning margins in NFL history are three, seven, six, 10, and four
• The Eagles have been outliers on the season, winning by the top five most common margins in just four total games.

GLENDALE Ariz. – Legal betting sites have posted five exact margin of victory props, ranging from three to 17 points, with odds escalating for the bigger margins. Taking a deep dive into the NFL’s lengthy history can help bettors get a better idea of what margins are good values compared to others at legal sports betting sites.

Will the Super Bowl be decided by exactly 3 points?

• Yes +400
• No -650

Will the Super Bowl be decided by exactly 7 points?

• Yes +650
• No -1400

Will the Super Bowl be decided by exactly 10 points?

• Yes +850
• No -2500

The History of Exact Point Margins

Since 2000, winning margin frequency has been tracked by various websites and the trends hold important information for bettors to know.

Since the turn of the century, a winning margin of three points is the most common, at just over 15% of games for both the regular season and playoffs. Seven points with 9% in regular season and 8% in the postseason comes in second and 10 points is just fourth in the regular season at just under 6%, but in the playoffs a 10-point margin is oddly tied for sixth most common, at slightly over 4%.

It is worth noting that these props do have a “no” bet, but the odds are extremely favored and betting on them is unlikely to bring any meaningful profit to wallets. Using the percentage numbers, we can determine how good of a value each of the “yes” odds are.

Firstly, the prop for a 10-point margin (+850) should likely not be on bettors’ minds, as it is unlikely either of these teams will finish with a two-score lead and it is also by far the most uncommon margin of the bunch, making it not worth the extra odds.

We can then take a look at how the Eagles and Chiefs performed in margin of victory during the regular season and playoffs. The Chiefs won a big 35% of their regular season games by three, six, or seven points, slightly over the 30% expected. The Eagles however, won 24% of their regular season games by the three most common margins.

In the playoffs, the Chiefs won by seven and then three, an expected outcome from the most common margins. But the Eagles won by 31 and 24, extreme outliers as these margins combined only occurred in just over 2% of games since 2000.

What we can gather is that with legal sportsbooks giving the three-point margin +400 odds, the 67% higher likelihood of it occurring compared to seven-point margins can surely make up for the decrease in payout. Statistically and historically, bettors should be most comfortable picking the most common option, given that even +400 odds have huge potential for profit.