Projected Betting Handle And Revenue For The 2019 NBA Finals

• In Nevada, bettors risk about $9.5 million per NBA Finals game.
• Depending on how long the series goes, the NBA Finals could see double-digit millions of dollars in wagers in each state.
• Nevada will make about $39,000 in tax revenue per game of the series.

LAS VEGAS – With sports betting now a mainstream topic of conversation, many fans are curious to know how much is expected to be wagered on the 2019 NBA Finals.

Despite Warriors fatigue (and in the absence of LeBron fatigue, finally), sportsbooks expect a big haul. Golden State is the favorite, but the surprising Toronto Raptors just ran off four straight to close out the powerhouse Bucks. This series has intrigue.

And intrigue is good for betting.

But how much is actually going to be bet?

To make a reasonable estimate, the only reliable data pool is the average Nevada handle for the event. Last year, the 2018 NBA Finals saw just $32 million wagered on the championship series. In 2017, that figure was $56 million. In 2016, it was $64 million.

Why the huge disparity? Because the NBA Finals is a series. Last year, the Warriors swept LeBron’s Cavaliers in four games. In 2017, the championship was decided in five games. In 2016, it was decided in seven games.

Per game, then, the NBA Finals average about $9.5 million in betting handle in Nevada.

But Nevada is a much bigger market and handles much more volume than other states. Still, as a measure of general popularity, we can pit Nevada’s historical Finals figures against the state’s Super Bowl numbers.

Between 2016 and 2018, Nevada sportsbooks averaged a Super Bowl handle of $143.2 million. This compares to the already established NBA Finals average of $9.5 million over the same span.

That means Nevada bettors are wagering 6.6 percent as much per game on the NBA Finals as they do on the Super Bowl. We can apply this 6.6% figure to sportsbooks in other states, as it’s useful as a general metric for popularity.

2019 NBA Finals Expected Handle, Tax Revenue Per Game

Given their reported Super Bowl betting handles, the US states that offer sports wagering can expect to see the following handles and tax revenues on each game of the NBA Finals.

New Mexico is excluded due to the tribal casinos there not reporting sports wagering figures. Pennsylvania is also left out, as the state did not report specific Super Bowl numbers this year. Further, Pennsylvania just launched online betting, which wasn’t available for the Super Bowl in February.

Nevertheless, here’s what each state with useful data to draw from can expect to see, assuming a six-percent hold. Remember, these numbers are per-game of the 2019 NBA Finals.

• Nevada – $9.64 million handle, $578,400 book revenue, $39,042 tax revenue
• Delaware – $145,200 handle, $8,712 book revenue, $4,356 tax revenue
• New Jersey – $2.30 million handle, $138,000 book revenue, $17,940 tax revenue
• Mississippi – $303,600 handle, $18,216 book revenue, $2,186 tax revenue
• West Virginia – $184,800 handle, $11,088 book revenue, $1,108 tax revenue
• Rhode Island – $429,000 handle, $25,740 book revenue, $13,127 tax revenue

Obviously, these numbers are very rough estimates, but they’re a starting point. After the first year of NBA Finals experience for these states’ books, it’ll be easier to estimate where the market is headed in the future.

For now, though, you should take the above with a grain of salt.