Running Back Prop Bets in Bills vs Chiefs Showdown

With legal sportsbooks suggesting the matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will be a close game, bettors can gain a leg up by separating season-long statistics based on individual game scripts.
Based on previous close matchups for both teams, betting the over for Devin Singletary’s and Jerick McKinnon’s total yards prop bets are excellent options.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s total yards prop bet may not be a bad choice to go over as well, but his lesser workload in close games may cause bettors to avoid his total yards prop.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – The Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in a game that will mark the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ career that he is a home underdog.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Odds

Team:	Spread:	Moneyline:	Total:
Buffalo Bills	-2.5 (-115)	-140	O54.0 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs	+2.5 (-105)	+120	U54.0 (-110)

Mahomes and Josh Allen are the most talked about players in this game given their status as the MVP favorites, meaning running backs such as Devin Singletary, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Jerick McKinnon all have some prop betting odds at Bovada that are flying under the radar.

Betting on Devin Singletary

Devin Singletary Total Yards Prop Bet

Over 67.5 Total Yards -115
Under 67.5 Total Yards -115

The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game in the league (83.6) and Devin Singletary has averaged just eight carries per game. That lack of elite usage and a difficult matchup may scare some players off from betting on Singletary, but breaking down those surface-level statistics shows that betting the over on Devin Singletary’s total yards prop (rushing and receiving yards) is an excellent bet.

NFL sportsbooks likely established the Devin Singletary total yards prop betting line of 67.5 yards because he is averaging 63.2 total yards per game.

Establishing a betting line in that manner completely undersells the opponents that the Bills have played.

Buffalo has been favored in every game this season, but not all games are equal. Buffalo has been favored by two scores or more twice, and favored by four points or less thrice. Separating Singletary’s performances into those two categories indicates that the Bills use him more in games that are expected to be closer and that his production goes up as a result:

Devin Singletary averages when the Bills are favored by ten or more (two Games): six rushes for 30.5 yards per game, 1.5 receptions for three yards. Averages 33.5 total yards.
Devin Singletary averages when the Bills are favored by four points or less (three games): 9.33 rushes for 36.7 yards per game, and five receptions for 46.3 yards per game. Averages 83 total yards.

When they face Kansas City, the final line will likely favor the Bills by either 2.5 or 3 points. In similar games, Singletary has averaged 83 total yards.

That makes bets on Devin Singletary to go over 67.5 total yards the best bet of the matchup.

Betting on Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been the featured back for most of the season for the Kansas City Chiefs, but similar to Devin Singletary his statistics are dictated based on game script.

In close games, CEH has seen his numbers drop dramatically, while his backup Jerick McKinnon sees his production increase by nearly 50%.

McKinnon is primarily known as a pass-catching back, so it would make sense that his numbers would increase dramatically in close matchups because Patrick Mahomes would be throwing the ball more.

Throwing the ball more directly impacts Edwards-Helaire because he gets fewer opportunities.

Splitting Kansas City’s games into two categories, wins by 10+ points and all other games, can help players at legal sportsbooks know which total yards prop is more valuable:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (61.5 Total Yards Prop Bet): 84 Total yards per game when the Chiefs win by 10+ points (two games), 64 total yards per game in all other Chiefs games (three games)
Jerick McKinnon (34.5 Total Yards Prop Bet): 24.5 Total yards in Chiefs wins by 10+ points, 36 total yards in all other games

Edwards-Helaire averages more than his 61.5 total yards prop bet in both game scripts so it may not even be a bad bet to bet the over for him, but the over for McKinnon is a better bet based on his increased usage in close games.

Couple that increased usage in close games with the fact that he rushed for 53 yards last week, and it becomes obvious that McKinnon is the better back to bet on.

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Brett Crown

Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.