San Francisco 49ers Facing Historic Underdog Odds vs Bills

• The San Francisco 49ers are six-point underdogs or more in back-to-back weeks.
• If the line holds at +7, it will be the first time since 2021 that they have been a touchdown underdog.
• Red zone stats from both teams show this game could be much higher than sportsbooks predict (44.5 points).

BUFFALO, N.Y. – The San Francisco 49ers are heading into Sunday as 7-point underdogs against the Buffalo Bills, marking the first time since 2021 they’ve been in such a lopsided position. While recent trends and historical data heavily favor the Bills, there are other NFL betting opportunities from team-specific stats, red-zone performance, and point totals.

San Francisco’s struggles as a significant underdog are well-documented. When facing spreads of six points or more in their last 30 games, the 49ers hold an abysmal 1-29 record straight up and 3-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games.

Last week, they flirted with being a touchdown underdog before the line closed at +6.5. The result? A brutal 38-10 loss to Green Bay where they failed to cover.

While this game marks a new chapter with quarterback Brock Purdy at the helm, historical trends cast doubt on a 49ers resurgence against a Buffalo team well-versed in handling underdog opponents.

Bills: Home Dominance with a Caveat

Buffalo has thrived as a home favorite of six points or more this season, sporting a perfect 3-0 record straight up in such scenarios. The offense has been explosive, scoring 30+ points in all three games. However, the Bills have only managed to cover the spread at legal sports betting sites once, showing a tendency to allow points that keep bettors sweating.

Buffalo’s high-powered offense is led by league-leading red-zone efficiency. The Bills average an impressive 4.3 red-zone scoring attempts per game, which jumps to 5.2 attempts at home. With the 49ers allowing 4.0 red-zone attempts per game on the road, the stage is set for a high-scoring contest.

Red-Zone Performance Stats

• Buffalo Bills (Offense): 4.3 red-zone attempts per game (1st in the NFL), 5.2 at home.
• San Francisco 49ers (Defense): Allowing 3.7 red-zone attempts per game over their last three games, 4.0 per game on the road.
• Buffalo Bills (Defense): Struggle at home, allowing 4.3 red-zone attempts per game.

Buffalo’s offense has been electric, but their defense’s inconsistency in the red zone makes the over on 44.5 points worth considering. The Bills have cleared 30 points in all three home games as 6-point favorites, and the 49ers’ leaky defense (38 points allowed to Green Bay last week) suggests they might allow enough for Buffalo to hit the total almost by themselves.

What To Bet In The 49ers Bills NFL Game

1. Buffalo Bills Team Total Over 26.5 (-115): With the Bills averaging 30+ points in this situation and leading the league in red-zone attempts, this bet offers value.
2. Game Total Over 44.5 Points: Both teams’ defensive trends in the red zone, coupled with Buffalo’s offensive firepower, point to a high-scoring game.
3. Buffalo Bills (-7): San Francisco’s history as a large underdog and Buffalo’s ability to dominate at home make this worth considering, though the Bills’ ATS record in these spots (1-2) calls for caution.

News tags: Brock Purdy | Buffalo Bills | football | Green Bay Packers | NFL | San Francisco 49ers