Scouting Betting Value in Closing Odds for the NFL Draft

• Bryce Young has completely locked up the first overall selection with -6600 odds.
• While the Houston Texans were strategically omitted from the available picks to bet on some sites, the ones following could sport some value.
• Big value could be had in the number three overall pick by the Arizona Cardinals if they do not trade down.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – After a seemingly endless offseason that saw draft stocks shift wildly from start to finish, the NFL Draft is finally upon us. While number one overall seems completely decided, value arises in the following picks, especially if any of the teams make an unexpected pick.

Even recent news has complicated the draft, with players like C.J. Stroud seeing his draft stock tumble amid poor showing in the S2 Cognition Test. Similarly, players like Tyree Wilson have skyrocketed up draft boards and may be a sneaky selection in the top 10, meaning correct predictions could hit big on the value found in legal betting sites.

Values Worth Considering

There are few events that are as unpredictable as the NFL Draft and with so much movement from teams trading as well as vastly different draft boards for some teams, it is recommended to play light on most props regardless.

With this in mind, one of the top values is for the third draft pick to be Will Anderson at a massive +350 odds. However, this pick requires that the Houston Texans pass on him at second overall, which is quite unlikely given that he is the favorite at -350 odds.

Yet, in the unlikely scenario that the Texans select someone else, it would be difficult to expect the Arizona Cardinals to trade down with the best defensive player on the board available, especially as edge rusher is among their biggest needs.

C.J. Stroud to go number three overall at +110 does sport good odds though, as other sportsbooks have him favored by as much as -150 odds and Stroud is largely considered to be the second best QB that many teams will want to trade up for.

A particular oddity on Bovada is that Anthony Richardson is nowhere to be seen as an option after pick one. Other NFL sportsbooks have him as the favorite to go number four overall to the Indianapolis Colts with EVEN odds. This would make the -106 odds for Will Levis not worth taking, as other sportsbooks have him with odds around +125, a substantial value.

Levis does seem to be the pick for the Indianapolis Colts at four though, as he is generally seen as the more pro-ready QB compared to Richardson, who is physically imposing but is more of a high-ceiling project. With no clear mentor on the roster for the Colts, they cannot afford to start Richardson this year.

While there may be value in guessing the picks following this, the fifth pick is heavily favorited to be Jalen Carter at -300 odds and every pick after that is guesswork at best due to possible trade-ups and the lack of bona-fide top picks available in this draft.

Thus, while legal sportsbooks do feature some value for certain players and draft positions, it is an overall volatile event to bet on because of the aforementioned trades and draft board discrepancies, leading to the only predictability being among the top five picks.