Should The Chiefs Be A Bigger Favorite vs. the Panthers?

by | Nov 23, 2024 9:12 am | Sports Betting | 0 comments

Should The Chiefs Be A Bigger Favorite vs. the Panthers?

Chiefs vs. Panthers

  • The Kansas City Chiefs are -10.5 against the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte this weekend.
  • With an over-under of 43 points, sportsbooks are expecting a low-scoring affair.
  • But, are betting sites overlooking Patrick Mahomes as a 10-point road favorite?

CHARLOTTE, N.C. – On Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs travel to North Carolina to face the Panthers as 10.5-point favorites. But should they be a larger favorite?

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-110) -600 O43.0 (-105)
Carolina Panthers +10.5 (-110) +425 U43.0 (-115)

The Chiefs are 9-10-1 against the spread when favored by 10 or more by NFL sportsbooks since December 2019. But most of the success has come at home. If you turn those 10-point favorite games into road games, the Chiefs are 0-3-1 ATS under Mahomes.

Chiefs Trends: Road Games, Favorites Of 10+ Under Mahomes

Date Matchup Result Spread Total
Dec 2023 Chiefs vs Patriots Chiefs 27-17 Push (-10) Over (39.5)
Dec 2022 Chiefs vs Texans Chiefs 30-24 No Cover (-14) Over (48.5)
Jan 2022 Chiefs vs Broncos Chiefs 28-24 No Cover (-11.5) Over (44.5)
Dec 2018 Chiefs vs Raiders Chiefs 40-33 No Cover (-14) Over (53.5)
  • With or without Mahomes, the Chiefs are trying to cover the spread for first the time as a 10-point road favorite (0-5-1 all time).

But it’s never been an offensive problem stopping the Chiefs from covering. In those four games for Mahomes, he led his team to 27+ points in all four with the over also hitting in all four.

In fact, Mahomes has been very reliable in these games, showing an emphasis to bet on Patrick Mahomes player props this week.

Mahomes As 10+ Point Road Favorite

Game Completions/Attempts Yards Touchdowns Interceptions
Patriots 27/37 305 2 2
Texans 36/41 336 2 0
Broncos 27/44 270 2 0
Raiders 23/38 295 4 0
  • Mahomes is averaging 28.25 completions on 40 attempts for 301.5 yards and 2.5 touchdowns when he’s a 10-point road favorite or more.

Compared to the Mahomes player prop bets and it almost looks like legal sports betting sites are underestimating the Chiefs this week.

  • Over 238 Passing Yards -110
  • Over 1.5 Passing TDs -165
  • Over 22.5 Completions -120
  • Over 32.5 Attempts -115

So, Should The Chiefs Be A Larger Favorite?

It all comes down to the Panthers offense. Sitting 3-7 ATS this year, there isn’t much data to look back to in this type of game. Bryce Young has only played one game as a 10-point home dog – against Dallas in late 2023. Throwing for 123 yards and a touchdown, he also had an interception over 29 attempts.

But even outside of Young, the Panthers have struggled hard in these games with more games scoring 10 or less (3) than scoring over 13 points (2) in their seven games dating back to 2007.

All signs point to betting on the Chiefs and taking the overs for basically every Patrick Mahomes prop bet.

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