SNF Betting Odds Prove Why You Shouldn’t Trust NFL Trends

• The Pittsburgh Steelers have won three of the last five against the Dallas Cowboys but have only played a few times since 2000.
• As home favorites of a field goal or less, Pittsburgh doesn’t let opponents score 20 points, but their opponents have been below average offenses.
• The odds for the Cowboys to score 20 points first are underdogs, despite the Steelers failing to even score 20 points in four of their last six.

PITTSBURGH – Sunday Night Football odds favor the Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) vs the Dallas Cowboys. With shading on the over (-125 odds for over 43.5 points), many are looking at past trends to figure out what to bet on SNF.

But the Cowboys and Steelers don’t have much of a history playing against each other recently (five games since 2000), so any trend you see can put you on the wrong side of a legal sports bet quickly.

Trend #1: Pittsburgh Has Won 3 of the Last 5 Matchups vs Dallas.

The last meeting was in 2020 when Cowboys QB Garrett Gilbert took care of business against an about-to-retire Ben Roethlisberger.

Instead, look at the Steelers at home when they’re favored by three or fewer since Week 10 2022. With seven games played in that time, the Steelers have gone 6-1 straight up and against the spread.

The majority of their success comes on the defensive side of the ball, which has held all seven teams to no more than 19 points.

Trend #2: As Home Favorites of 3 or Less, Pittsburgh Doesn’t Let Teams Score 20+ Since 2022.

I know. I did just say this is better than Trend #1 but further understand the details.

In those seven games, the Steelers have let up 10 points three times, 16 points twice, and had a game giving up 14 and 19. But, we must look at the opponents.

Opponent	Points Scored	Note
LA Chargers	10	Week 3 of Jim Harbaugh’s team undergoing major renovations.
Green Bay Packers	19	The most comparable offense to the Dallas Cowboys.
Tennessee Titans	16	56% completion for Will Levis in his second career NFL game.
Cleveland Browns	14	A Week 18 battle with the Browns fighting for nothing.
Las Vegas Raiders	10	A 6-win Derek Carr-led team who was 2-7 a few weeks prior.
Baltimore Ravens	16	A Tyler Huntley-led Ravens team, passing for only 88 yards.
New Orleans Saints	10	Stat leaders include Alvin Kamara (26 rush yards) and Juwan Johnson (44 rec yards).

My point? While the Steelers have shown success in these games, they’re opponents do not compare to the current Dallas Cowboys squad. With only the Packers as an above-average offense, these low numbers shouldn’t be used to make a case on Pennsylvania sportsbooks toward the under for the Cowboys team total, which sits at 20.5 points.

Total Points – Dallas Cowboys

• Over 20.5 -115
• Under 20.5 -115

Since their Week 7 Bye last year (16 games), the Cowboys have scored over 20.5 points 11 times. The other five times? They put up 20, 20, 20, 19, and 10 points.

Take the over here on the Cowboys, instead.

Even further, doesn’t it kill the strength of the Steelers 6-1 ATS and SU numbers when seeing their opponents and situations? Maybe Cowboys +2.5 is the call instead!

Trend #3: Steelers To Score 20 Points First (Even Odds)

If that hook on the Cowboys at 20.5 scares you, you can always bet them to score 20 points first (+145 odds). While the odds at Texas sportsbooks online favor the Steelers, Pittsburgh hasn’t even hit this mark in four of their last six games.

Additionally, the Steelers have been one of the worst teams in the NFL over the past few years in terms of points scored.

Steelers Points Scored: Rank Of 32 NFL Teams

• 2024: 23
• 2023: 28
• 2022: 26
• 2021: 21

While this goes against NFL sportsbook odds rather than trends, it still proves betting information slanted toward the NFL can impact your selection.

Either way, the +145 odds on the Cowboys in a race to 20 are the best value, unless you’re slamming the under 45.5 points. If that’s the case, take the ‘Neither’ option at +450 odds and hope to hedge later.

News tags: Alvin Kamara | Baltimore Ravens | Ben Roethlisberger | Cleveland Browns | Dallas Cowboys | Derek Carr | Garrett Gilbert | Green Bay Packers | Jim Harbaugh | Juwan Johnson | LA Chargers | Las Vegas Raiders | New Orleans Saints | NFL | Pennsylvania | Pittsburgh Steelers | Sunday Night Football | Tennessee Titans | Texas | Tyler Huntley | Will Levis