Stats Hinting Joe Burrow Going Over Passing Yard Prop

• Joe Burrow has -115 odds to go over 276.5 passing yards.
• Burrow has the fifth most passing yards in the NFL at 4,475.
• Burrow has gone over 276.5 yards seven times this season.

CINCINNATI – Joe Burrow has the highest passing yard total set in the Divisional Round amongst any other quarterback remaining in the playoffs.

As the odds sit right now heading into the game, legal online sportsbooks set Burrow’s passing yard total at 276.5 with slight shading on the over at -115 odds.

Total Passing Yards – Joe Burrow

• Over 276.5 -115
• Under 276.5 -113

Bengals Gameplan Supporting the Over

Joe Burrow throwing for over 276.5 is a lot easier than some might think, even going up against a “tough” defense in the Buffalo Bills. Burrow has the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL this season at 4,475 passing yards and has gone over the 276.5 mark in seven games this season.

Off the bat, the main thing supporting the over is the Bengals game plan as a pass-first team. Cincy is running a pass play on 62.33% of their plays each game on the season for the sixth most passing attempts per game at 37.8.

In their last three specifically, that number has spiked to 42 attempts per game on a 68.37% pass play rate.

Of those attempts, Burrow is completing 25.9 per game. He is also in the top-10 in the league for passing yards per attempt at 7.4 yards. As for Burrow’s yards per completion, he is averaging 10 yards per.

Bills Defense Not as Intimidating as Some Think

While the Bills defense has been one of the most consistent all season, one of the holes that many opposing QBs seem to exploit comes against their passing defense. The Bills opponents are getting off plenty of passing opportunities at a 61.79% pass play rate and are seeing the fourth most passing attempts per game 36.2.

They are also coming off of a Wild Card Game that saw Skylar Thompson and the Miami Dolphins offense attempt 45 passes, while averaging 22.4 completed passes per game against them.

Where the real bread and butter comes supporting Burrow’s NFL odds on the over are the yards per attempt and completion that the Bills are allowing. While they are forcing the fourth least amount of yards per attempt at 5.9, their yards per completion spikes to 9.5 meaning receivers are averaging 3.6 yards after the catch.

With explosive receivers in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, that extra yardage will certainly come in handy for Burrow as he looks to hit over 276.5.

News tags: Buffalo Bills | Cincinnati Bengals | football | Joe Burrow | NFL | NFL Divisional Round | NFL Playoffs