The Bookie Brief: Betting Divisional Games NFL Week 7

• The New York Jets are 3-11 ATS against AFC East opponents since 2018.
• The Dallas Cowboys are 10-3 ATS against NFC East opponents since 2018.

DALLAS – When it comes to betting on the NFL, there are always certain similarities that should be found at the sportsbooks. For NFL Week 7, it’s divisional matchups.

Aside from the Thursday Night Football game, there are a half dozen games that will be played by two teams from the same division. Playing twice a year, this provides an excellent sample size when looking at the individual matchups as well as division performance in general.

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Odds

• Moneyline: Bills (-600) vs. Jets (+400)
• Spread: Bills -10.5
• Total: 46 points

Just how bad are the New York Jets? Since Sam Darnold’s first season in the league, the Jets have done by far the worst against opponents within the division compared to the entire NFL.

At 3-11 ATS against AFC East opponents, they hold two more ATS losses than any other team playing a division opponent.

In addition to the worst record, they also hold the lowest ATS loss amount, meaning they average losing by 8.2 points against their handicap. Nobody is within a field goal’s worth of points of them – giving the green light to bet on the Buffalo Bills.

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints Odds

• Moneyline: Panthers (+240) vs. Saints (-290)
• Spread: Saints -6.5
• Total: 50.5 points

Teddy Bridgewater returning to the dome is the instant story in this matchup. Given nearly a touchdown, the New Orleans Saints will have a battle ahead of them in attempts to keep their 5-0 record on the over intact.

The Carolina Panthers are prone to the under (2-4 on the year) and returning to familiar eyes could cause an extremely low output of points from either team.

Both teams are around .500 on the year ATS, showing no true betting trend on either side.

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds

• Moneyline: Browns (-190) vs. Bengals (+165)
• Spread: Browns -3.5
• Total: 51 points

Despite being one of the 13 teams with at least four wins, the Cleveland Browns feel from the media that they are on path to 0-16 again. At 4-2 overall and hitting the Over in the same number of games, the Browns have established their identity.

As for the Cincinnati Bengals, they are still putting things together but have surpassed expectations from the legal sports betting sites by nearly a point a game. With a 4-2 ATS record, the Bengals make it hard not to play them with the points.

Both teams faced off earlier this year in Week 2 of Thursday Night Football where the Browns escaped with a 35-30 victory. If both teams can repeat a similar offensive output, the Over will be the safest bet to take.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Football Team Odds

• Moneyline: Cowboys (-105) vs. Washington (-115)
• Spread: Washington -1
• Total: 45 points

Since 2018, the Dallas Cowboys hold the best record against division opponents according to NFL betting trends. With a 10-3 ATS record, the removal of Dak Prescott will certainly play a factor in betting.

Still, The Washington Football Team is fifth-worst (5-9) in covering the spread against division opponents, pointing toward an underdog victory for the Cowboys. Despite playing Andy Dalton, the talent of the Cowboys still impresses compared to the Washington Football Team.

They’ll need to rely on the strength of their role players. But, at -105 odds, the Cowboys would be a perfect addition to an NFL parlay.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Odds

• Moneyline: Chiefs (-380) vs. Broncos (+290)
• Spread: Chiefs -7
• Total: 44 points

At 44 total points, it almost seems like disrespect to the Kansas City Chiefs – even if they are battling a common Under in the Denver Broncos.

Since 2018 when Patrick Mahomes took over in Kansas City, the Chiefs have gone Over in 54.8% of games by an average of nearly a field goal. Add in the fact that Mahomes is on pace for 4531 passing yards, 40 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions this season and it seems like an easy Over play.

However, be aware of the Broncos. Since Vic Fangio has taken over, the under is 12-9. This is actually an increase from recent years for the Broncos, potentially showing some regression toward the middle.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds

• Moneyline: Seahawks (-180) vs. Cardinals (+160)
• Spread: Seahawks -3.5
• Total: 54.5 points

The new Sunday Night Football game presents years’ worth of betting data for the Seattle Seahawks compared to the Arizona Cardinals in their recent form. Still, both teams are amongst the best at covering the spreads against division opponents.

At 25-22-2, Seattle covers the spread 53.2% of the time with a 1.2 point per game spread advantage. Arizona sits two back in the standings, but their 52.2% rate doesn’t make them a profitable bet every time.

However, with the 3.5-points being given, the Cardinals are known for keeping it close at home and could be a late-score play.

News tags: Andy Dalton | Arizona Cardinals | Buffalo Bills | Carolina Panthers | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns | Dak Prescott | Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs | New Orleans Saints | New York Jets | Patrick Mahomes | Seattle Seahawks | Teddy Bridgewater