The Impact Of COVID On NFL Home Underdogs ATS Records

• There are six home underdogs during Week 4 of the NFL.
• Spreads ranging within 3.5 to 5.5 points have been favorable for NFL underdogs.

CHICAGO – Six home underdogs rule the betting board for NFL betting Week 4. Despite the Thursday Night Football game-opening as an additional home underdog for the week, the NY Jets closed as one-point favorites.

However, the other home underdog games remain, excluding the postponed Tennessee Titans matchup, which listed the Titans as 1.5-point dogs.

• Carolina Panthers +3
• Chicago Bears +2.5
• Detroit Lions +4
• Miami Dolphins +6
• Las Vegas Raiders +3
• Washington Football Team +13.5

In a year without COVID-19, homefield advantage actually meant something. Without a screaming background of fanatics, the ability to control one’s destiny while playing at home has been modified.

In the past two seasons, there hasn’t been any true ATS trend when being a home underdog in the NFL. During the 2019 season, teams were 45-51-2 against the spread when expected to lose. On the flip side, teams went 45-39-2 ATS in 2018 when home underdogs.

Whichever side of the needle it falls on this year may not play the biggest role in this legal sports betting trend; however, even analyzing this year’s situation, it seems to remain around the same.

The NFL home team underdog betting trend sits at 7-7 during 2020, not giving much help to bettors. But as any good gambler does, they break down the numbers and the key to this could be within the number of points the team is as underdog by.

Teams that have been an underdog by a field goal or less have not done so well this year. Sitting with a combined 1-3 ATS record, being an underdog by three or less seems to tough to swallow.

• Week 1: Panthers +3 (L)
• Week 2: Bengals +2.5 (L)
• Week 3: Giants +3 (L), Vikings +3 (W)

Additionally, this trend continues when seeing an underdog status of six points or more. A total of six games have been played in the NFL this year when teams are a true touchdown underdog.

• Week 1: Giants +6 (L), Jaguars +7 (W)
• Week 2: Jets +7 (L), Texans +7.5 (L), Chargers +8.5 (W)
• Week 3: Broncos +6 (L)

With a 2-4 record ATS, it seems bookmakers don’t want to list a high number for bettors to take but don’t mind getting beat over the top.

The sweet spot for NFL home underdogs comes in the 3.5- to 5.5-point range. In 2020, teams are 4-0 ATS when projected to lose by in between a field goal and a touchdown.

• Broncos +3.5 (W)
• Raiders +4 (W)
• WFT +5.5 (W)
• Dolphins +5.5 (W)

With this, using these teams above in teasers and parlays would be a bettor’s best bet. However, those looking to play the opposite teams should avoid these games and roll with the large or small spreads.

This, of course, is only a small sample size but it will be interesting to see how the home team underdog trend continues moving forward.

News tags: Carolina Panthers | Chicago Bears | Detroit Lions | Las Vegas Raiders | Miami Dolphins | NFL | Washington Football Team