Top 3 Best Kentucky Derby Longshots Based on Post Position

Fierceness is the betting favorite at +250 odds but their post position greatly hurts their chances.
No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from post No. 17 and only three of 42 horses ever showed (top-three finish).
T O Password (+3500), Catalytic (+4000), and Just A Touch (+1100) are the best longshots for the Kentucky Derby based on historical success from their post positions.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Post positions are one of the most important factors to consider when betting on the 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby. We’re fading the Kentucky Derby betting favorite Fierceness for longshots in better post positions.

2024 Kentucky Derby Odds and Posts

1. Dornoch +2000
2. Sierra Leone +425
3. Mystik Dan +2000
4. Catching Freedom +900
5. Catalytic +4000
6. Just Steel +2200
7. Honor Marie +1600
8. Just A Touch +1100
9. Encino +1800
10. T O Password +3500
11. Forever Young +850
12. Track Phantom +2800
13. West Saratoga +4000
14. Endlessly +3000
15. Domestic Product +2500
16. Grand Mo The First +5000
17. Fierceness +250
18. Stronghold +2200
19. Resilience +2500
20. Society Man +4000

Although Fierceness has proven to be a contender at this year’s Run for the Roses, the implications of Saturday’s No. 17 post drawing are too big to ignore. No horse has ever won the Derby from the No. 17 spot, with only three horses finishing top three in 42 starts.

Pairing the unfortunate No. 17 post position with +250 odds makes Fierceness not worth their legal sports betting price for Saturday. Instead, betting on longshots to win or show (top 3) from better post positions could be more beneficial.

Post Positions 5, 8, And 10 Have Most Wins At Churchill Downs

Post Position No. 5 has 10 wins, the most of any position at the Kentucky Derby. Catalytic has +4000 odds at horse racing betting sites to win out of this position but is 105 points behind Sierra Leone on the Kentucky Derby 150 points leaderboard.

Despite being a few notches below top speedsters on Saturday, the No. 5 position gives value to Catalytic’s +1500 odds to finish top three at the Kentucky Derby. Positions No. 8 and No. 10 are tied for the second-most wins at Churchill Downs, but betting odds are much higher on Just A Touch (+1100) than T O Password (+3500).

T O Password topped the Japan Road leaderboard and won their most recent race by two lengths despite being having +1300 odds to win. After winning both races on the Japan Road, this horse is worth a sprinkle as an underdog but a solid bet for a top three finish with +1000 Kentucky sports betting odds.

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Zachary Kelley

Zach graduated from Florida State University with a degree in Writing, Editing, and Media. Zach is interested in the legalization aspect of sports betting and enjoys participating in DFS. He has a passion for sports writing and most enjoys writing about football and baseball both professional and collegiate.