Trump vs. Trudeau: Betting the Tariff Timeline

• President Trump’s 25% tariff on Canadian imports has escalated tensions with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who vows to fight back.
• Sportsbooks like BetOnline, Bovada, and Bodog have posted odds on when the tariffs will be lifted.
• The odds favor a prolonged tariff, with “Not Before May 2025” (+125) as the most likely outcome, though March (+160) and April (+250) remain in play.
• Key factors influencing the timeline include economic fallout, Canada’s retaliatory measures, and Trump’s push for fentanyl control.

WASHINGTON – The political and economic tension between the U.S. and Canada has once again taken center stage, with President Donald Trump imposing a sweeping 25% tariff on Canadian imports in January 2025. The move has been met with fierce resistance from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has labeled the tariffs “a very dumb thing to do” and promised a “relentless fight” to protect Canada’s economy.

While the rhetoric is fiery and the stakes are high, legal sports betting sites joined in and set lines on when the 25% tariff will be lifted. Offering a unique way for political and economic observers to bet on the Trump tariffs, here’s how the sportsbooks have lined up the outcomes:

When Will The 25% Canada Tariff Be Removed By Trump?

• March 2025 +160
• April 2025 +250
• Not before May 2025 +125

These odds indicate that political sportsbooks believe a prolonged standoff is slightly more likely than a swift resolution. However, as with any political event, external pressures and unforeseen developments could shift the landscape quickly.

March 2025 (+160)

Bettors backing a quick resolution see Trump’s tariffs as a temporary power move rather than a long-term policy shift. With Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinting at potential one-month exemptions beyond just the auto industry, there’s room for the administration to start walking back some of these tariffs sooner rather than later.

If Trump is using this as a bargaining chip to secure concessions on fentanyl control or reciprocal trade agreements, a resolution by the end of March is very possible.

April 2025 (+250)

This middle option presents a decent risk-reward ratio. Trudeau has made it clear that his government is actively negotiating to remove the tariffs, and a month-long timeline would give both sides space to claim victory.

If trade negotiations progress but aren’t finalized in March, an April resolution could be a realistic bet.

Not Before May 2025 (+125)

The favorite in this market suggests that many believe Trump will hold firm on tariffs for a longer period. With China also engaging in its own trade battle with the U.S., Trump may choose to prolong the standoff to leverage better deals across multiple fronts.

What Could Swing the Market?

1. U.S. Economic Fallout: If American businesses start feeling the pinch—especially in sectors that rely on Canadian imports—domestic pressure could force Trump’s hand.
2. Canada’s Retaliation: Canada has already imposed its own tariffs on U.S. goods, targeting $107 billion in American exports. If these countermeasures cause significant disruptions, Trump could be pushed into making concessions sooner.
3. The Fentanyl Factor: Trump has tied the tariff issue to fentanyl trafficking, particularly from Mexico and Canada. If Canada makes a visible effort to address U.S. concerns, it could pave the way for a quicker resolution.

So How Do I Bet on Trump Tariffs?

If you’re looking for value against legal online sportsbooks, April at +250 might be the sweet spot. This timeframe gives the necessary room for both sides to negotiate while still aligning with Trump’s past behavior of using high-stakes pressure tactics before cutting a deal.

However, if you believe Trump will stick to his guns for the foreseeable future, Not Before May 2025 (+125) remains a solid play.

If you think you have an edge in predicting Trump’s next move, the markets provide a chance to put your instincts to the test. With shifting odds and ongoing political developments, now is the time to find value in the market.