UFC 251 Betting Odds Breakdown: Who Leaves The Island A Winner?

• UFC 251, taking place at “Fight Island”, features Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal with Usman favored at -265 odds.
• Other notable main card matches include a featherweight title bout where Alexander Volkanovski is favored over Max Holloway at -205 odds.
• One of the biggest UFC betting opportunities is actually in the Woman’s Starweight division where No. 1 ranked Jessica Andrade takes on No. 2 Rose Namajunas.
• Masvidal is reportedly taking in 85% of bets on BetOnline, though, he is still an underdog.
• UFC 251 betting handle analysis may give further indication of where the sharp money is.

ABU DHABI, U.A.E. – UFC 251 is here and it is taking place at the famed “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi. Not only is the venue peaking interest from sports fans all circles, but the fights themselves provide an excellent card for UFC bettors around the world.

The hype built around this event is “trending off the charts” according to UFC president Dana White.

“The thing is trending higher than a Conor McGregor fight. The only fight that this fight is comparable to is Conor vs. Khabib,” said White.

The biggest fight on the card is undoubtedly between Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal where the Welterweight title will be on the line. Usman is favored to beat Masvidal at -265 odds, but many bettors are hammering a Masvidal upset at +225 odds.

However, other title fights include Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway for the Featherweight belt and Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo for the Bantamweight title. To add to an already loaded card includes a Woman’s Starweight bout between No. 1 ranked Jessica Andrade vs. No. 2 ranked Rose Namajunas.

With so many top tier fights and the country so sports starved it’s easy to see why UFC betting handles are expected to explode this weekend. But last-minute bettors may be able to learn from those betting before them.

Usman Vs. Masvidal Betting Outlook

Usman vs. Masvidal was a fight made only possible because Gilbert Burns, who was originally slated to fight Usman, tested positive for COVID-19.

The last-minute preparations for Masvidal are reflected in the odds for the fight, but not for the betting handle.

Even with 85% of bets coming in on Masvidal, the one-sided action hasn’t shifted the odds in his favor. This could be due to the fact that the 15% of bets that are being made on Usman are larger individual bets. Meaning, the UFC betting sharps like Usman.

It could also be due to the fact that Usman is simply in form at the moment. Usman has won 11 straight fights coming into this match and has lived up to his nickname, “The Nigerian Nightmare”.

Masvidal is coming in with a three-fight winning streak of his own, but given the shortened time period to prepare, it may affect his performance against Usman.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway Betting

Volkanovski, the current featherweight champion, comes into the fight with a (21-1) record. Hollaway, on the other hand, is coming in with a (21-5) record and is looking to take back the title.

The last time these two fighters took the octagon was in UFC 245 which took place on December 14, 2019. In that bout, Volkanovski edged Hollaway by unanimous decision.

Hollaway proved his endurance against Volkanovski despite taking a beating. But, given his competitor’s record, it was hard to vote against him.

As a matter of fact, Volkanovski hasn’t lost a fight since getting knocked out by Cory Nelson in 2013. He’s been perfect for seven years, but could his next loss be on Fight Island? If so, it would likely have to come from Hollaway knocking him out, which he has +550 odds to do so.

Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo Betting Breakdown

Betting on Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo is flying under the UFC betting radar, but is definitely worth the look. Petr Yan is coming in with a 6-0 record in the UFC but he’s going up against someone who is no stranger to title fights.

Yan is coming in as a deserving favorite, however, Aldo has won a title fight eight times in his career which is tied for third-most among active fighters and sixth most all-time.

Yan will have to put his best fist forward in this fight, but bettors seem to be confident in that. In each of his UFC fights he has been set as the favorite and bettors have hammered his odds each time and came out the other end with a profit.

For this fight, 70% of people are betting on Yan to beat Aldo by KO/TKO.

This betting handle insight seems to coincide with past records and is more of a valuable metric to consider than those that were hammering Masvidal’s odds.

Jessica Andrade vs. Rose Namajunas Betting Handle Trends

Though not a title fight, the level of competition could constitute one. Andrade and Namajunas are the top two ranked female fighters in the Starweight division respectably, making this a fight that UFC bettors can’t miss.

Despite Andrade having won the last matchup against Namajunas in May of 2019 and being ranked higher than her, UFC sportsbooks and sports bettors are favoring Namajunas to get revenge on “Fight Island.”

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Namajunas is taking in 69% of the total bets on this fight and has amassed 61% of the total handle.

Andrade is also coming into the fight with a (20-7) record while Namajunas is coming in with a (9-4) record. Andrade has the experience, but her latest loss against now Starweight champion Weili Zhang could attribute to why bettors might be more confident in taking Namajunas.

Legal sports betting sites will likely see UFC betting handles shift all throughout the day, but one thing is for certain, UFC bettors will have an ample amount to wager on Saturday.

The Main Card for UFC 251 begins at 10 p.m. EST and the fights can be ordered through ESPN+.

News tags: Alexander Volkanovski | BetOnline | Dana White | DraftKings | Fight Island | Jessica Andrade | Jorge Masvidal | Jose Aldo | Kamaru Usman | Max Holloway | Petr Yan | Rose Namajunas | UFC 251