- Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira will meet for the fourth time in their careers, Pereira is the +110 underdog but has won all three fights
- Despite the trio of losses, Adesanya looked much better in their fights than the scorecard leads bettors to believe
- Jorge Masvidal has done a lot of trash talk leading up to his fight with Gilbert Burns, but the difficult matchup favors the -400 Burns
Miami, Fl. – UFC 287 is set to begin Saturday night, and importantly features the long-awaited rematch between Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira. Undercard fights also feature value across the board, though much of the attention is understandably on the rematch of the fated rivals.
Despite the 3-0 record, Pereira enters as the +110 underdog vs Adesanya while Jorge Masvidal and heavy favorite Gilbert Burns headline the co-main. With legal betting sites listing Burns as a massive -400 favorite, the co-main card is his for the taking, especially given his great stylistic matchup vs Masvidal.
Top Props for the Main and Co-Main Card
With the main card featuring two fighters with a lot of history between them, there is a good amount of information to go off of. In terms of an outright winner, it is difficult to make a choice given that history would say +110 odds for Pereira is a phenomenal value.
Yet we can’t count out Adesanya, as he fared quite well against Pereira in all fights before suffering a crushing decision loss in their first bout, a devastating knockout in the second matchup, and then Pereira stormed back in the fifth round with a TKO in their first UFC fight.
While the results certainly bode poorly, Adesanya was not getting demolished either, as the fights were quite close but ultimately Pereira’s obscene power got the better of Adesanya twice.
With this being a very difficult money line choice, a prop bet that takes advantage of both fighters appears to be the best course of action. For this, a prop of both Adesanya and Pereira reaching 80+ significant strikes give approachable +120 odds.
In their last bout, Adesanya logged 86 significant strikes while Pereira got up to 91. A minor worry is Pereira finishing the match quickly with his great power, but Adesanya has driven him to late rounds in two out of their three fights, including their only UFC matchup.
Undercard and Co-Main Odds Feature Phenomenal Double Chance Value
Among the undercard fights, one double chance prop features phenomenal value in the Jaqueline Amorim vs Sam Hughes matchup. A double chance of Amorim to win by TKO/KO/DQ or Submission comes in at amazing -110 odds on legal sportsbooks.
So far in her career, Amorim has never gone to decision and has won all but one match by submission. There is a worry since Hughes has gone to decision in four out of her last five matches, though the odds for the fight to go the distance sits at +120.
Inside the distance, Amorim is favored with massive -700 odds, making the -110 double chance odds to do the same a steal (though it will not void if going to decision). Her overall money line is also -275, making the double chance odds great by giving bettors 165 points of value to not go to decision.
The same idea is in play for Gilbert Burns vs Jorge Masvidal, with Burns expected to win and also holding a very strong stylistic advantage over Masvidal due to his incredible ground game and grappling familiarity. The same prop at -110 odds for Burns to win by TKO/KO/DQ or submission once again is a great value for a fight that is not expected to go the distance (-165).
Overall, UFC 287 is slated to bring a lot of value and exciting fights for bettors to enjoy, with the main card, co-main, and undercard all featuring value in many ways.
Top Prop for Adesanya vs Pereira
Bet | Odds |
---|---|
Both Fighters to Land 80+ Significant Strikes | +120 |
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News tags: Alex Pereira | Gilbert Burns | Israel Adesanya | Jaqueline Amorim | Jorge Masvidal | Sam Hughes | UFC 287
Jeremias is a current Florida State University student majoring in Editing, Writing and Media as well as Media/Communication studies. Primarily focused on the NFL, NBA, and NHL, Jeremias has a passion for sports statistics research that helps bettors find the blind spots in sportsbooks.