Valspar Championship Betting Preview: Course Fit + Weather

• Based on course fit and weather projections, Kurt Kitayama (+6000), Kevin Yu (+10000), Rico Hoey (+6000), Jhonattan Vegas (+12500), Sepp Straka (+1600), and Xander Schauffele (+1800) are the best bets win the Valspar Championship.

PALM HARBOR, Fla. – The best way to bet on 2025 Valspar Championship odds this week is by looking at the players who are considered the best fit for the Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course and those golfers who have advantageous tee times based on weather splits.

Specifically, people using legal PGA Tour betting sites should bet on players with the best course fits (low is better) and who tee off in the morning on Thursday and the afternoon on Friday (AM/PM).

Bettors can find Valspar Championship course fit projections at PGATour.com (the ten best fits are below) and weather data using the National Weather Service’s hourly weather forecast graph.

Ten Best Golfers by Course Fit

Note: These odds are from Bovada, one of the best legal sports betting sites in Florida (where the Valspar Championship is), and available in many other states nationwide.

When combining those two tools, the best bets to win the Valspar Championship are Kurt Kitayama (+6000), Kevin Yu (+10000), Rico Hoey (+6000), Jhonattan Vegas (+12500), Sepp Straka (+1600), and Xander Schauffele (+1800) at legal sports betting sites.

Why Use Course Fit and Weather to Bet on the Valspar Championship?

Course fit and weather are some of the best ways to bet on any PGA Tour event, including the 2025 Valspar.

The stats that the PGA Tour uses to calculate the course fit for the Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course are:

• SG: Off the Tee – Par 4
• SG: Approach from the Fairway
• SG: Approach from the Bunker
• SG: Approach the Green Other
• SG: Off the Tee – Par 5

The PGA Tour uses many rounds of historical data from this course to determine what stats matter the most when betting on the Valspar Championship.

For this week’s tournament, the Tour has identified strokes gained stats from off the tee and on approach as the most important. In general, the stats favor players who are above average players from tee to green while not weighing putting stats particularly heavily.

Weather is an important aspect to consider in any betting preview because of the potential advantage that many golfers get based on when they are teeing off. At the Valspar Championship on Thursday and Friday, the weather is extremely important to incorporate into any betting formula or model because it gives a significant edge to golfers teeing off in the morning for their first round and the afternoon for the second round.

The wind gusts that the National Weather Service is projecting for Thursday and Friday are why golfers with the AM/PM tee time splits are the best bet for the Valspar. The projected wind gusts for Thursday and Friday are below. The National Weather Service does not include wind gust projections when they are below 18 MPH.

The afternoon on Thursday is when the wind gusts are likely to be extreme, which will likely significantly impact the golfers that tee off then to make the cut or win the Valspar Championship.

News tags: Alex Smalley | Doug Ghim | Florida | golf | Henrik Norlander | Jhonattan Vegas | Kevin Yu | Kurt Kitayama | PGA Tour | Rico Hoey | Sahith Theegala | Sepp Straka | Valspar Championship | Xander Schauffele