Week Five’s Effect on CFB National Championship Odds

• Ohio State is now the front runner for the National Championship with +200 odds, followed closely behind Georgia (+210) and Alabama (+220).
• Top 25 wins by Clemson, Oklahoma State, and Ole Miss caused their odds to get shorter, while Wake Forest’s odds got longer despite beating Florida State.

COLUMBUS, Ohio – For the first time this season, the Ohio State Buckeyes are now the betting favorite to win the College Football National Championship.

The Buckeyes have moved past the Alabama Crimson Tide and Georgia Bulldogs, although each team is tightly grouped as the clear favorites in College Football.

College Football National Championship Odds

• Ohio State +200
• Georgia +210
• Alabama +220
• Clemson +1200
• USC +1600
• Michigan +2000

Making Sense of the Odds Shift

Of the Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama grouping at the top odds boards, only Alabama covered the spread this past weekend.

Despite the Nick Saban-led group covering, comparing the weekend’s results of each team makes it clear why Ohio State, not Alabama, became the favorite at Bovada:

• Ohio State: Despite a relatively lackluster stat line for C.J. Stroud versus Rutgers (154 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception), Ohio State beat Rutgers 49 to 10. The Buckeyes failed to cover the spread of -39, resulting in a push for bettors. The key for Ohio State relative to Georgia and Alabama in this game was not their inability to cover, but that they were never in any danger of losing and that Stroud stayed healthy.
• Georgia: College Football sportsbooks had Georgia favored by 31 points on the road against the Missouri Tigers in Week Five. With a spread that large, sportsbooks did not think that the Bulldogs vs Tigers game would turn into one of the tightest games of the week. Georgia beat Missouri 26 to 10, needing 14 unanswered fourth-quarter points to beat a 2-2 Mizzou team that was not previously given a chance.
• Alabama: Beating the 20th ranked Arkansas Razorbacks on the road 49-26 would typically be cause for legal sportsbooks to shorten a contender’s National Championship odds, but the shoulder injury to 2021 Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young is a clear cause for concern. Redshirt freshman Jalen Milroe replace Young and performed admirably in his spot, but replacing a player of Young’s caliber is nearly impossible.

Top 25 Matchup Wins Effecting National Championship Odds

Outside of Alabama’s victory over Arkansas, there were four other matchups between AP Top 25 Poll:

• Clemson over NC State: Following a 30-20 victory over 10th ranked NC State, the Clemson Tigers saw their odds shrink from +1400 to +1200. The high-profile matchup was the site of College Gameday in Week Five.
• Oklahoma State over Baylor: After taking a 16-3 lead into halftime against the Baylor Bears, Oklahoma State was able to hold and win 36-25, causing their odds to shift from +10000 to +6000.
• Ole Miss over Kentucky: The Lane Kiffin-led Rebels beat seventh-ranked Kentucky 22-19 largely on the back of the defense, which held Will Levis and company to seven second-half points. Ole Miss went from +10000 to win the National Championship to +8000.
• Wake Forest over Florida State: The Demon Deacon’s “slow mesh” style offense was too much for the Seminoles to overcome, beating Florida State on the road 31 to 21. Despite the victory, Wake Forest’s odds lengthened from +25000 to +30000 due to Clemson’s win.

News tags: Alabama | Bovada | Bryce Young | CJ Stroud | Clemson | College Football | Georgia | Jalen Milroe | Kentucky | Nick Saban | Ohio State | Oklahoma State | Ole Miss | Wake Forest