What Are The Odds For States Voting On Recreational Marijuana?

• The legalization of recreational marijuana will be part of voter ballots in five states on November 3.
• Four states have odds on the outcome of how people will vote posted on sportsbooks, with two being heavily favored to open legal cannabis markets.

PHOENIX – Five states will be voting on the legalization of recreational marijuana on Tuesday and sportsbooks have wagers open on the outcome for four of them.

Arizona, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota residents will all see the subject on their ballots to weigh in on what could be a new industry for each state.

All of these states except Mississippi have betting lines posted on which way the people will vote on the matter.

Will More States Say Yes To Mary Jane?

Lawmakers have seen how much revenue the marijuana industry has brought in to the economies of states that have made it legal. For example, Colorado was able to pull in $1 billion in state revenue after just five years of legalization.

With the Coronavirus Pandemic causing such havoc on the financial situations nationwide, a highly lucrative market bringing in an influx of tax revenue is more than welcome by the five states that have agreed to put the industry to a vote by their constituents.

“Voters are aware of the fiscal pain that’s already here or coming down the road. I believe they’re seeing marijuana revenue as part of the solution,” said Matthew Schweich, deputy director at the Marijuana Policy Project.

Eleven states already have recreational marijuana; Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington. Washington, DC also has a legal cannabis market.

So, what are the odds that this number will jump from 11 to at least 15?

Sportsbooks like MyBookie have listed prop bets for gamblers to get in on some action regarding the subject and how it will ultimately turn out. All but South Dakota and Montana are heavily favored to legalize the herb for recreational use.

There are a couple of reasons why this ballot measure passing could be favored. The first aspect to look at is the fact that medical marijuana has been legal in Arizona since 2010. Also, this isn’t the first time a recreational marijuana bill is being presented on the Arizona ballot.

In 2016 a similar bill was put on the ballot. It was narrowly defeated and one of the main causes was voters being unsure of what employers’ rights were when it came to drug-testing.

This latest version seems to remedy those worries by keeping that right for employers while also allowing those 21 and up to partake in buying and using limited amounts of recreational marijuana.

New Jersey has the heaviest odds in favor of legalizing Marijuana and for good reason. The current polling numbers show that New Jersey voters support the ballot measure by a 2-1 margin.

The Brach Eichler Cannabis Poll shows that 65% of likely voters either strongly or somewhat support the ballot measure. With this data ahead of November 3, all signs point to New Jersey joining the recreational Marijuana market.

In South Dakota, the polls paint a bit of a different story. Recreational marijuana still has the lead but barely. According to a poll conducted by Argus Leader Media and KELO-TV, 51% of likely voters were in support of recreational marijuana while 44% were against it and 5% are still undecided.

South Dakotans were much more favorable to medical marijuana which had 74% of respondents being in favor of passing that.

This betting line isn’t taking into account the medical side of the drug is it’s a bit more of a gamble for bettors. But, with “Yes” being the underdog at +120 odds and the polls being as tight as they are, there could be a decent payout picking the underdog choice.

Montana provides bettors with a true Pick’em. Montana voters seem to be split on the idea now with many younger voters supporting it while older voters are very much against it.

“The fate of marijuana legalization comes down to three factors: how the ‘don’t know’ respondents split, independent voters, and the presence of younger voters at the polls,” said analysts at Montana State University (MSU). “Right now, 49 percent of respondents overall indicate they will vote to legalize—a 10-point lead over those indicating they will not.”

Bettors may want to fade this betting line as there is too much uncertainty and no payout incentive to take the risk on either side.

What’s Next?

Medicinal marijuana is legal in 33 states in the US. This vote is for the recreational side of the market which has seen the highest rate of profit in legal industries as it’s a popular alternative for alcohol use in leisurely situations for more health-conscious people.

Proponents believe that making recreational marijuana legal would not only provide dividends from revenue to the economies hurting from the outbreak of COVID-19, but it would also ensure that residents that want to engage in using cannabis will be provided with a safe and untampered version of it.

Opponents of recreational marijuana legalization argue that the youth may have greater access to it, there will be more impaired drivers on the road, and that it could be used as a gateway drug to other harsher substances.

Come November 3, people in these states will see whether or not they’ll be legally able to switch up their Bud Light to bud and a lighter, but only if they choose to do so of course. Bettors at legal sports betting sites, meanwhile, might be able to turn a profit either way.

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