Who is the Best Longshot Bet to Win the World Cup?

by | Nov 30, 2022 5:22 pm | Sports Betting | 0 comments

Who is the Best Longshot Bet to Win the World Cup?

Croatia - 2022 World Cup

  • Brazil is the favorite to win the World Cup, but based on expected statistics France may be the better team.
  • With +6000 odds, Croatia represents the best longshot value based on their expected goal differential so far in the World Cup.

DOHA, Qatar – The Round of 16 has begun to take shape in the World Cup, with Bovada now updating its future odds to win to accurately incorporate recent performances with perceived talent levels.

Based on those measurements, Brazil is the clear favorite to win the World Cup.

World Cup Odds to Win

  • Brazil +250
  • France +500
  • Argentina +600
  • Spain +750
  • England +900
  • Portugal +1200
  • Germany +1400
  • Netherlands +1600
  • Belgium +5000
  • Croatia +6000
  • USA +6000
  • Uruguay +8000
  • Morocco +10000
  • Senegal +10000
  • Switzerland +10000
  • Poland +12500
  • Serbia +15000
  • Japan +20000
  • Australia +25000
  • Ghana +25000
  • Saudi Arabia +25000
  • South Korea +25000
  • Cameroon +50000
  • Costa Rica +75000

The eye test supports the reasoning behind legal sportsbooks giving Brazil the shortest odds to take home the World Cup, but expected statistics suggest they may be overvalued.

Best World Cup Future Values

Expected goals for and expected goals against per match (using per match instead of total because not all teams have played three games) suggest that it is France, not Brazil, who should be the runaway favorite to repeat as World Cup winners.

With +500 odds they represent a lot of value, although it is Croatia who currently possesses the most value.

Squad: Expected Goal Difference: Odds:
France 2.63 +500
Brazil 1.48 +250
Spain 1.44 +750
Croatia 1.15 +6000
Germany 1.12 +1400

Croatia simply needs to win or draw versus Belgium in order to advance to the knockout stage, with the fact that they haven’t already the reason their odds are so long.

Getting in before that happens ensures very long odds on Croatia, who may be the best long-shot bet remaining at World Cup sportsbooks.

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