Why Weather Matters For The 151st Running Of The Belmont Stakes

• The Belmont Stakes track conditions should be relatively fast on Saturday.
• Rain is not expected to be an issue this weekend in Elmont, NY.
• A dry track favors most horses, but “mudders” prefer a sloppier surface.

ELMONT, N.Y. – Though there will be no Triple Crown winner this year, the last leg of the famed series remains a must-see event for horseplayers worldwide.

At 1.5 miles (12 furlongs) in length, the Belmont Stakes is already considered one of the most grueling horse races in the world. But mix in a rainy weekend or inclement weather, and the goings get that much tougher.

Fortunately, the weather in Elmont, New York, this weekend is expected to be breezy, warm, and bright. Forecasts call for a high of 74 degrees (F) and only minimal cloud-cover on race day.

However, if an unexpected stormfront does move in, you don’t have to let it disrupt your betting. In fact, you can use such a variable to your decided advantage.

How Weather Affects Race Horses

In horse racing, the weather determines track conditions more than any other individual factor. This makes a reliable forecast one of the best tools that horseplayers have to handicap events.

After all, track conditions can be the difference between a Win, Place, or Show. Similarly, understanding these track conditions can be the difference between a winning ticket and a losing one.

Generally speaking, a horse that performs well in a shorter race under muddy or sloppy track conditions typically has the increased endurance that lends itself well to longer races like the Belmont.

On the other hand, a horse that just edges out its rivals on a short, fast track will often struggle in less-than-ideal conditions on longer courses.

In the Kentucky Derby, the track’s sloppy conditions were a major factor in longshot Country House getting the victory. Further, Tacitus – who comes from a pedigree aligned with long-track success – finished third in the muck.

War of Will, who will be racing alongside Tacitus in the Belmont Stakes, fared worse, finishing seventh overall. LegalSportsBetting.com thinks that had War of Will performed better in the slop at the Derby, he would likely be favored ahead of Tacitus for the Belmont.

Currently, Tacitus is a slight favorite over War of Will. Tacitus is trending at 9/5 (+180) odds, while War of Will is sitting at 2/1 (+200) odds.

How Weather Affects Jockeys

Weather and track conditions also affect jockey performances.

If you watched the Preakness Stakes last month, you likely remember Bodexpress throwing his jockey right out of the gate. Without his rider, the horse competed. But even with a substantially lighter load, he didn’t actually contend.

Horses need to be steered, and to do that, jockeys need to be able to see. Sloppy, muddy conditions make that difficult.

To combat the elements in such conditions, jockeys typically wear multiple spare goggles on their helmets. They then swap out the muddied lenses for clear ones as needed.

Wet, muddy conditions can also affect jockeys’ grips on the reins and on their crops. It can even impact their stability in the stirrups.

Track Condition Grades For US Horse Racing

There are seven different designations in the US for metering dirt tracks. These also apply to artificial surfaces, though the Belmont Stakes – as well as the other two legs of the Triple Crown – are all contested on dirt.

Understanding these track conditions is of key importance to horse racing bettors:

• Fast – dry and even; the most preferable track conditions for most horses
• Wet Fast – surface water present, but base remains solid; usually occurs after a brief, heavy rain; similar race times to fast conditions
• Good – nearly fast, but with slightly more give
• Muddy – wet track with no standing water; slightly favors endurance over top speed
• Sloppy – standing water present, course saturated; favors endurance over speed
• Slow – water present on surface and through the base substrate; heavily favors endurance over speed
• Sealed – a wet track that has been tamped down to prevent further saturation and improve safety

The 2019 Belmont Stakes is expected to have fast track conditions. However, you should still be able to use the hints above to help you pick your favorite ponies.

The 151st Belmont Stakes will be run this Saturday (June 8) at approximately 6:50 p.m. Coverage starts on NBC at 4:00 p.m., with undercard coverage starting at 2:30 p.m. on NBCSN.

News tags: Belmont Stakes | Tacticus | War of Will